Today went precisely as expected to the end of the day. If you read the prior post's comments, you'll see that we counted a leading expanding diagonal downward, which filled the open overnight futures gap, followed by a ((B)) wave which undercut the low to the 1.382 external retracement. That wave bounced off the 18-day SMA and the S1 daily pivot support and we started counting five-waves-up and three-down to the 62% retracement in real time. We drew the potential ((C)) wave up, and price closed at 2.62 x the ((A)) wave up. That chart is below.
|ES Futures - 15-min - Diagonal & Retrace?|
Unfortunately, due to the nearness to the high, and the expectation that - if today was 'window dressing day' - Monday could see more inflows and go over the top. If it does, we are showing the simple alternate labels below. The leading diagonal would have to be a, the three-wave up wave would have to be b, and the wave down to noon would have to be c.
The other thing that is unfortunate is that this pattern does not work on S&P500 cash. That index exceeded yesterday's high. While the S&P500 could go over the high again, as could the daily ES futures, the only pattern we can find that does not violate degree labels at this time is this one.
|S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Five Waves Up?|
It's been a real bear of a count, but the three-wave internal structure should give 'pause'. It could be an ending diagonal. It could also be Leading.
Have a good start to the weekend.