Intraday versus Daily

Today went precisely as expected to the end of the day. If you read the prior post's comments, you'll see that we counted a leading expanding diagonal downward, which filled the open overnight futures gap, followed by a ((B)) wave which undercut the low to the 1.382 external retracement. That wave bounced off the 18-day SMA and the S1 daily pivot support and we started counting five-waves-up and three-down to the 62% retracement in real time. We drew the potential ((C)) wave up, and price closed at 2.62 x the ((A)) wave up. That chart is below.

ES Futures - 15-min - Diagonal & Retrace?

Unfortunately, due to the nearness to the high, and the expectation that - if today was 'window dressing day' - Monday could see more inflows and go over the top. If it does, we are showing the simple alternate labels below. The leading diagonal would have to be a, the three-wave up wave would have to be b, and the wave down to noon would have to be c.

The other thing that is unfortunate is that this pattern does not work on S&P500 cash. That index exceeded yesterday's high. While the S&P500 could go over the high again, as could the daily ES futures, the only pattern we can find that does not violate degree labels at this time is this one.

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Five Waves Up?

It's been a real bear of a count, but the three-wave internal structure should give 'pause'. It could be an ending diagonal. It could also be Leading.

Have a good start to the weekend.

TraderJoe

Infinite Wisdom

In its infinite wisdom, and for whatever reason, the market as measured by the ES E-mini futures, and the SPY cash index, made a lower low than the (b) wave this morning, and got down to the 90% level - which was also the 18-day SMA. We called out the 18-day SMA when it occurred.

Because the downward 90% level was reached after 'three-waves-up', it is possible to see a larger flat, but the odds drop as the wave nears the high.

ES Futures - 2 hr - 90% Down

Then, no one wanted to be short for FANG earnings after the bell, and the market surpassed the (c) wave high. A lot of the futures increase happened after the bell, and does not show up in cash - which is why futures are shown. To continue a downward count, price must not exceed the invalidation level. If it does an alternate will apply, perhaps a continuation of the (z) wave upward of Minor B.

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe

Awe Inspiring

If you could have kept me awake during the Federal Reserve Conference, that's what I would have said. Still, until invalidated by going over the high, within the context of the Minor C wave downward, this is the best count I can currently determine - based on the SPY and the ES futures. It looks easiest to interpret here, so that is the chart being shown.

SPY - 1 Hr - Minute ((ii))

Anything further lower requires closing the (b) wave gap and closing below minuet (b) of minute ((ii)).

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe

Status - Wave Counting Stop above 3,237

The daily Elliott Wave count has not changed. Yesterday, we said and showed that we expected more upward movement for wave c of (ii). That did occur in the overnight for the futures, and during the regular session for cash.

The market was compressed in a narrow range today, although at the end of the day declines edged out advancing issues on the NYSE (see chart), though it was more like 1-to-2 on the NASDAQ.

ES Futures - Daily - Likely in Minor C

The above daily chart has a confirmed MACD divergence in that the Minor B wave is on a higher high, but the MACD has now crossed lower, too.

Today - during the session - I posted this chart LINK and said that a wave ii would have to have to remain within the base channel in order to have the wave (ii) location correct. It was close, but so far, the base channel has held. Here is the updated chart. (I had to change to candle format as some of the bars didn't print on the revised OHLC chart. Don't ask me why.)

ES Futures - 1 Hr - Wave (iii) Likely

The hourly chart has a confirmed "lower high" as the MACD made a lower high along with price. As you can see, price has already broken below the hourly fractal at wave i. It turns out in this count that a 1.618 x wave (i) would be at 3,100, if it occurs. The up wave (ii) is more than a 50% retracement, so a 1.618 wave (iii) extension is very possible. 

For this reason - and with the FED meeting report tomorrow - I have place a "wave-counting-stop" above 3,237, the high of wave ii, because the base channel should not be broken higher.

Just looking at the daily chart through a different lens, since the daily slow stochastic has lost its embedded status, it is entirely possible for price and the 18-day SMA to try to come together, and a trip to the lower daily Bollinger Band does not look unreasonable, either.

ES Futures - Daily - Slow Stochastic Not Embedded

Also, today was the third day since the "outside reversal day down", and, because its high was not exceeded within two trading days, according to the paraphrase of Ira's guidelines, a trap was not set for the bears.

Have a good start to your evening.

TraderJoe

Nearing Equality in Time

The chart below shows that - depending on where you start the top - waves (i) and (ii) are reaching near equality in time, if wave (ii) hasn't attained it already because of the uncertainty at the prior high.

ES Futures - 30 Minutes - (ii) and (i) close in time

Wave (ii) can currently be seen as a flat wave with a potential ending diagonal, but it would be best if there was another set of overlapping waves.

Have a good start to your evening.

TraderJoe

Gap and Grind

Here is the primary count on the ES daily chart. Cash gapped lower and then spent most of the day grinding around and not filling the opening gap. The advance-decline statistics were a little stronger to the downside today: 1-to-2 on the NYSE and about 1-to-3 on the NDX.

ES Futures - Daily - Overlap of ((y)) of B

Drawing in a secondary trend line from the low (light blue) shows that price action has broken that line.

Here is the short-term ES 30-minute chart including the overnight fourth wave triangle which was called in near-real-time.

ES Futures - 30 Minute - Five Down

With the lower low after v it could be that we are making a flat wave. There is definitely a 3-3-5 structure off of the low. The question is whether it will be an expanded flat, or a failed flat. The expanded flat is the more frequent structure. 

Have a  good start to your evening.

TraderJoe

Devil's Advocate

Although it is possible to count the Minor B wave as over and completed with the minute ((z)) wave at the high, responsible Elliott Wave analysts can look for realistic alternates and try to rule them in or out. This can happen on every chart time frame from 1 minute to 1 month. For the purposes of this exercise, let's look at a current alternate count - which is still in force on the ES 4-hr chart.

ES Futures - 4 Hr - Alternate

Assume for the moment there is a bottom label of some degree on the lower left. Then, with three-wave cycles, it is possible to be forming a contracting diagonal upward, shown as (i), (ii), (iii). Because wave (iii) is shorter in price and time than wave (i). 

Now, the good news is that this count would become relatively easy to "rule out" in that wave (iv) in a contracting diagonal - by rule - may not be longer than wave (ii).

Well, don't you know this morning that wave (iv) hit, but did not surpass, equality. Any trading below 3,199 in the futures would do it. It would invalidate the up count. We're not there yet. But, such a lower move would also likely break the up-channel lower boundary as well.

Wave analysts need to think about probabilities. They can not put the blinders on and assume their count is correct. They must look for evidence on both sides until the market makes a determination.

Have a good rest of the day.

TraderJoe

Outside Key Reversal Day Down

Today the ES daily futures made an outside key reversal day down. It made the highest of the recovery, then, after touching the R1 pivot point and finding resistance at it, made a lower low than the prior day and closed lower. In doing so, price traveled down through the Daily Pivot, PP, and the S1 pivot, and tried to stretch down to the 3,210 S2 pivot but couldn't quite make it on this stab.

ES Futures - Daily - Outside Day

As shown on the chart, the preliminary advance and decline statistics were not that impressive for a down day - almost even on the NYSE and the NASDAQ couldn't quite get to even 1 to 2, advancing to declining. Some people say we are crashing. Yesterday, the NYSE advance-decline line made a new all-time high. In the news background, there was some bickering about how much free money to give away, and some regulatory concerns regarding Apple. At the futures settlement, they were still trading above the 18-day SMA, and the daily slow stochastic had not quite lost it's embedded status although it flirted with it all day.

Today's down wave overlapped the minute ((y)) wave of Minor B, but not the minute ((w)) wave yet. That step would be needed as the first step in a three-step confirmation of the Minor C wave of Intermediate (X) being underway. The confirmation process was covered in yesterday's post if you missed it. From an internal wave count perspective, this wave would look a lot better as a five-wave sequence if there is a lower low tomorrow.

Then, if that occurs, one should watch any retrace on this wave if it happens. In general, the high of an outside day up should not be taken out in the next two days or else it constitutes a trap for the bears.

Are we due for real turn lower? Today I produced this chart without wave labels, looking at cycles and Fibonacci number of trading days.

ES Futures - Daily - Cycles

Today was day 85 since the March 23rd low. It is getting very close to a Fibonacci 89 number of trading days. The cycles are not exact, it is likely the number of trading days won't be either. But it is something to be on the watch for.

Well, have a very good start to your evening.

TraderJoe

Stimulus II

In order to complete today's post, I had to wait overnight to see if the ES futures made a higher high today like cash did. It did. The reason for this was written about before. I had said that a minute wave ((y)) would have to remain 'shorter in time' than the Minor C wave of Intermediate (W), it's larger degree wave in the same direction. Therefore, for this reason, it is necessary to see the Minor B wave as a triple zigzag, now, and it is labeled as such in the chart below.

ES Futures - Daily - Minor B

The Minor C wave of (W) was 16-days, and if the minute ((y)) wave was labeled at last night's peak, it would be 17-days - which is not allowed by the principles of degree labeling. This was also verified on a 4-Hr chart, and it is currently indeed longer. Therefore, I will continue to follow the rules.

This Minor B wave seems to be in keeping with some of these key phrases from The Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter, "B waves are phonies", "speculator's paradise", "orgies of odd-lotters", and "focus on a narrow list of stocks", "non-confirmation by other averages".  These phrases appear in the section on wave personality.

The Minor B wave is nowhere near a typical B wave maximum of 1.382 x A, but it has exceeded the 105% needed for an expanded flat. The 1.382 x A level would not occur until 3,348.

Last night an agreement in principle was announced on a new round of stimulus, and some of the details have to be worked out yet. So again, while there has been another internal subdivision of the Minor B wave nothing has changed dramatically in the count. Others have been calling for a crash. I have not been. I'm just looking for a regular corrective 'C' wave at this point to see if a better parallel trend channel can be formed. My main concern is that the put-call ratio and it's 10-day moving average remain in speculative territory.

There should be a three-step 'confirmation' process applied to the likelihood of  a downward wave when it is in progress. Step 1 - Overlapping wave minute ((w)), Step 2 - Trading below wave minute ((x)), and Step 3 - Trading below the A wave.

This is still a time to remain patient, calm and flexible. 

Have a good start to your day.

TraderJoe

Nothing Significant Has Changed

Here's the ES Daily chart. There was a minor higher high day, which we were expecting, and then towards the close price began falling off in a possible Tuesday "turn-around" which were were also expecting. We tried to count five waves up in cash. It may have truncated. We were also expecting that possibility and labeled it in advance on intraday charts.

ES Futures - Daily - Minor B

As a smaller degree wave, the minute ((y)) wave should likely not become longer in time than the Minor C wave of (W). If it does, we'll deal with it at that time. Overlap on wave minute ((w)) of Minor B would be one step in the confirmation of the onset of Minor C wave down of Intermediate (X).

Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe

Through the Goal Posts

As we related on Friday, the up count would be satisfactory and count without a truncation if the S&P500 cash index and/or futures made a fifth wave high. Both of them did that today. The daily chart is below.

ES Futures - Daily - New Recovery High

Since there is a new local high, it establishes a divergence with the MACD indicator. But, please note today's preliminary advance-decline statistics shown on the chart. The cash index was up +27 points, and it couldn't even muster even advances with declines.

Also recall that up Mondays often (not always) lead to turn-around Tuesdays. But, we will also remind that price is above the 18-day SMA, and the daily slow stochastic is still embedded. The same is true on the intraday wave counting screen too as of the futures settlement.

Have a good start to your evening.

TraderJoe

Wheezer

The stock market - measured by the cash S&P500 Index below - spent the day trying to cross the finish line and make a fifth wave new high on the intraday five-minute chart to finish the Minor wave B. (Also the minuet (c) wave and minute ((y)) wave of Minor B - shown in previous charts - would finish here too. They are not shown to reduce clutter.)

S&P500 Cash Index - 5 Minute - Up Wave

With narrow breadth of about 1,630 to 1,336 and flat momentum, stocks wheezed higher on this index, while the DOW finished down for the day.

As you can see from the above chart, the 78.6% retracement level was attained, and that is a location after which a truncation can occur. If it does, fine, we're done. But, we should let those 'powers-that-be' - whomever it is that can create the up gaps on the low overnight volume - see what they can do on Sunday night. Maybe they'll get it over the high on Monday; maybe not. 

It certainly has been a weird wave - possibly countable as an expanding diagonal or part of a triangle - and very intractable to due to the internal whip-arounds.

Have a good start to the evening and to your weekend.

TraderJoe

Weekly GOLD - Interim Report

I often get questions on the GOLD market. The only thing I track are gold futures, but that count is not too hard to decipher if we use the principles of degree labeling. The weekly chart is below.

GOLD Futures - Weekly Nearest Close Only - Primary [ B ]

So, within the Primary [ B ] wave up, there appears to be three distinct waves. They are Intermediate (A), (B), (C). In order to have confidence in the pattern, the principle of degree labeling states that all of the sub-waves of (C) must be smaller than the Intermediate (A) wave that started the pattern.

As you can see, when counted in this manner, then Minor 1, 3, and 5 which head in the same direction as Intermediate (A), and are smaller degree waves than (A), are indeed smaller than Intermediate (A). Unlike certain large Elliott wave firms, I can not find a (W)-(X)-(Y) pattern that fulfills this requirement. That is because 1 + 3 > (A), and that would violate degree labeling.

This means Gold is likely in the Minor 5th wave up, and it may very well end as an ending contracting diagonal which is currently trying to peek up over the parallel Elliott trend channel. The MACD is on a higher high, and that typically only happens within a "(C)" wave.

From a time standpoint, it should be noted that since Intermediate (C) is 'longer in time' than Intermediate (A). This means that the two waves 'must' be of the same degree or the (C) wave must be of a higher degree. From a degree standpoint, note that Minor wave 4, down, is shorter in both price and time than Intermediate (B), and it's subwaves are shorter than their higher degree waves in the downward direction, as well. For example, within Minor 4, then minute ((c)) is shorter than Minor C of Intermediate (B), down.

Readers of this blog should attempt to count the 5th wave higher for their practice and education, and to share with others if they see fit.

Have an excellent rest of the day.

TraderJoe

Every Trick in the Book

It should be clear to all who are following the markets on an intraday basis that the current mode of operation is to violently whip things around enough for the algo-bots to sop up some of your previous profits, or prevent some from accruing now. This is not sour grapes on my part. This is the way markets are from time-to-time. We are still in the Minor B wave.

ES Futures - 4 Hr - Minor B

Yesterday's 'five waves down' on the cash market ended only the c wave of a (b) wave flat before heading higher. Notice the sheer number of diagonals we have been dealing with in this pattern - some upward - like (c) of ((w)), or all of (a) of ((y)), and some downward like to start the three-wave a wave of (b) of ((y)). There are truncations .. like the (c) wave of ((w)) and the (b) wave of ((y)), too.

This is frustrating summer-light trade. I've seen some of it before, but I would say not to this extent - perhaps it speaks to the degree of the wave that we are in.

Notice two things from this chart. First, notice how the wave is struggling at the level of the ((y)) = ((w)) equality point. Second, notice the angle of the ((y)) wave. It is at a much shallower upward angle that the ((w)) wave is. The should mean the eventual pull of the market will be downward. 

In keeping with the theme of whipping thing around, perhaps the cash index is making this short term triangle.

S&P500 Cash Index - 15 Minutes - Triangle

We have not seen a final triangle yet. If this one should develop properly, then, perhaps it will precede the last wave to the high of minute ((y)) of Minor B.

After the close, the data came through on the put-to-call ratio. This is the second lowest level I've every recorded, and the lowest level for the 10-day average I've ever recorded.

Put-Call Ratio - Daily - Lowest 10-Day Average

With the caveat that "past performance is no guarantee of future results", look back at what happened in January when the speculation got this intense. I think ignoring the speculation - at some point - becomes fool-hardy.

Have a good start to your evening.

TraderJoe

Intraday Cash

This is the way I've counted the intraday S&P500 cash market. It is a little too early to tell whether it is a (i) or an (a) wave down.

S&P500 Cash - 5 minute - Intraday

A wave counting stop should be placed at the high, as that is the only formal point of actual invalidation at this time.

I apologize to some extent for putting the comments on moderation only.  Apparently there just some people who don't want to see others succeed, who think they know it all, who aren't interested in learning together, or who are jealous that others can handle the concept of probability or uncertainty and they can't.

Sooner or later when the spam filters catch up with them, perhaps things will get back to normal.

Reasonable comments and questions will still be posted, albeit with a brief delay.

Have a good start to the evening,

TraderJoe

Interim Update - Minor B Nearly Complete as a Flat Wave?

The is the ES 4-hr chart. If we are in Minor B, it counts as the double-combination wave labeled ((w))-((x))-((y)), the purpose of which was to fill gaps on the cash price chart (as noted in the prior post), and to reach the required 90% level for a flat. That means the Minor A wave down was a three-wave sequence. At this writing, cash has gone over the prior 3,233 top. ES futures have not yet.

ES Futures - 4 Hr - Minor B

Within wave minute ((y)), then minuet (a) is a diagonal .. and so minuet (c) should finish as an impulse or a truncation.

Yes! Another higher high is definitely possible. We could only be in iv of (c) now, so just be aware. Right now, the Fibonacci relationship would be ((y)) = 1.27 x ((w)), or thereabouts.

P.S. After writing the above, the downward movement overlapped the likely first wave up, and so the upward movement is likely over. There should not be a fourth or fifth wave higher.

Have a good rest of the afternoon.
TraderJoe

Because Waves Tend to Travel in Channels

This chart is because waves tend to travel in channels. The overall count has not changed. The (X) wave can be almost any corrective structure, including a zigzag, a multiple zigzag, a flat or expanded flat or a triangle.

S&P 500 Cash Index - Daily - Still on Track

In this count I do not see any degree violations because Minute c of Minor B is still smaller than all of Minor C of Intermediate (W), both in time and in price. This count could have as it's intention to fill some gaps at C of (W).

Notice the MACD has a peak at A, and a peak at C, but not a typical 'third-of-a-third' with a divergence.

Have a good start to the weekend,

TraderJoe

NQ Soars Like an Eagle while others Turkey Trot

The NASDAQ 100 futures (NQ) made a subsequent higher high today, providing five waves up in one segment, or nearly so. Meanwhile, the ES futures made marginal lower lows and a lower high. Here is the current count on the NQ 100.

NQ Futures - Daily - Still in Minor C

Wave minute ((iii)) is just at the location where a fourth wave down can overlap wave ((i)) and remain just shorter than minute ((ii)) as needed if this is a contracting diagonal. 

Meanwhile, the ES futures have an intraday chart that looks like this one, so far.

ES Futures - 30 Minutes - Lower Low & Lower High

We have a wave counting stop above resistance at 3,175, but, so far, the down move was one of the more impulsive waves we've seen in a while. So, downward movement should continue.

The next best count instead of (i), (ii), i, ii lower is just an (a)-(b)-(c), down and a new wave up. The downward count needs a new low in the after hours or sometime tomorrow. Right now i is shorter than (i), and ii is shorter than (ii) in price and time.

Have a very good start to the evening.

TraderJoe

Count from the Minor B Wave High

This is the current count from the Minor B wave high. It is a pretty clean diagonal downward and subsequent complex upward wave.

ES Futures - 30 Minutes - Diagonal and Flat

The diagonal shown down to (i) is a 3-3-3-3-3 diagonal, and as with all diagonals of this type, it can be 'leading or ending'. If it is leading, it would be minuet wave (i) of a larger minute wave ((i)), downward of the Minor C wave.

The diagonal must be respected. What might tilt the odds a bit (55:45?) in favor of the leading diagonal is the fact that there is a clear FLAT wave = 100% following it. Flats are corrections, so why would a corrective wave be following a diagonal, unless the upward wave is to correct downward one? The clear purpose of a complex flat wave is to give the correction more time, and a bit more price.

Still, there is a clear invalidation point, and we often hear of the supposed "deep retrace" following a diagonal wave, particularly if it is the first wave in a sequence.

What should be starting to be apparent is that if the Minor C wave downward is starting out this slowly, then the angle of the trajectory of the C wave will like be more shallow than the downward A wave, assuming the B wave holds its own.

In any case, today is yet another relatively clear of how we are not crashing yet - with as many people on their internet blogs and videos trying to tell you we are crashing. Not yet, but maybe soon. Let's see what direction the overnight gap is, and if there is any downside after the cash market open.

As an alternate, if the downward wave invalidates, then the presence of a diagonal would tend to indicate that it would be the (c) wave of wave ((iv)) of Minor B wave still in progress upward. But again, the presence of the flat tends to argue against that.

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe

Near ((c)) = ((a)) for Minor B - Part 2

Today's marginal higher high in the S&P500 Cash Index got the Minute ((c)) wave ever closer in length to equality with the Minute ((a)) wave. At the end of the day, it ended with a slight deficit. But, the marginal new high is enough to provide a likely ending diagonal for the Minute ((c)) wave, as per the updated hourly chart below.

SP500 Cash Index - 1 Hr - Minor B

Although the cash market made a higher high during the regular cash session, the ES futures did not make a higher high at that location. That now adds to the number of potential inter-market discrepancies being seen.

1. The NQ futures made a new all-time high, the ES futures have not (yet)
2. Cash S&P made a new higher high in the cash session, ES futures did not.
3. S&P Cash exceeded the minute ((a)) wave, Dow cash did not.

The list is getting very hard to ignore at this point.

Have a very good start to the evening.
TraderJoe

Near ((c)) = ((a)) for Minor B

The cash S&P500 has not yet made a minute ((c)) wave = minute ((b)) wave for the Minor B wave, as per the hourly chart, below.

SP500 Cash Index - 1 Hr - Near ((c)) = ((a))

This has been a difficult wave series to count because of the sideways triangle within minute ((a)), the nearly equal b wave for a 'flat', and the c wave diagonal downward to end the minute ((b)) wave. We have shown portions correctly. We didn't get it all correct. But, because the Minor B wave exceeds the 78.6% retrace level, we think it counts best as the B wave, and not the second wave that starts the long awaited crash. Note that the angle of the minute ((c)) wave is less steep than that of the minute ((a)) wave. You can see this by the number of bars being larger on the ruler shown. This might indicate that the downward pull of the market is the stronger one.

If the NQ futures exceed the 10,658 level, then that will only be wave ((iii))) of their potential ending diagonal. If not, then the diagonal can end or truncate in this area.

Stay flexible patient and calm, and have a good start to the week.

TraderJoe
P.S. Please refresh your browser if you did not get the completed post the first time. Thx!

Diagonal After "Too Far too Fast" Wave ?

Here's a look at the high-flying NASDAQ 100 Futures. Is it possible the chart is reflecting a diagonal wave, after a "too-far-too-fast" wave upward?

NQ 100 Futures - 4 Hr Close - A,B,C

It is very likely that the Minor A wave, up, is a regular five-wave impulse wave. Therefore, in a zigzag, the C wave may be a diagonal wave. Why would there be a diagonal here? The diagonal would reflect "too-far-too-fast" conditions evidenced by the "Running B wave". The B wave is satisfactory in that it crosses back down over the Minor A wave to correct it. But it is the most meager of corrections, and represents the strength that the index is about to express as the result of the majority of business being shifted to on-line retailers, high tech electronics & biotech during the pandemic.

A count of Minor A,B,C up would result in an Intermediate (W) wave, up, and would be similar to the (W) wave up in the S&P500 cash index, and ES futures.

With the advance-decline line having recently made new all-time highs, there are still ways this wave can progress upwards.

Please note this is the second post this weekend, if you have not read the first one yet.

Have a good weekend,

TraderJoe

Five-Up with Exhaustion Gap?

In the S&P500 cash market it is possible to count "five-waves-up" including the possibility of an exhaustion gap. See the cash 15-minute chart below. The gap is still shown as a red circle as it is not closed yet.

SP500 Cash Index - 15 Minutes - "Five Up"?

Notice the current perfection to which wave v would equal wave i. After the jobs report and the spike higher, we counted a downward wave, followed by a double-zigzag corrective wave higher to the 62% retrace level - in near real-time. (See the comments in the prior post for further details). This was followed by another downward wave that broke the prior local low.

As we know the cash markets will be closed tomorrow, and a lot of things can happen in the overnight futures. For a continued downward count, then the trend line from the high (shown as the dashed blue line) needs to be observed otherwise the only wave downward would have to begin as a diagonal, and not an impulse.

Is it possible this upward wave is not over? Yes, it is possible. In that case, perhaps wave iv would extend to a triangle. But, it is not required to, and there isn't even downward overlap in cash yet.

So, with five-waves up, this could be the minute ((c)) wave up, of the larger Minor B wave in the S&P500 and ES futures. The DOW has not crossed it's prior wave upward, and as we said yesterday, can still be in a triangle.

Have a great start to the long weekend if you are in the U.S.A., and a good start to your evening if elsewhere.

TraderJoe

Short Term Triangle?

Nothing has invalidated. The overall count has not changed. I'm just wondering if we are getting an overall short-term 'summer triangle' in the Dow and S&P. The Dow futures chart is shown below for clarity.

If it is a triangle, a very clear invalidation point is established. If the red Minor B wave is at the prior high, that is still fine. There is still a way to count Minute wave ((i)), down, and minute wave ((ii)), up. We remain on alert for downward waves at some point fairly soon. We suspect that the Dow cash, and S&P cash still need to overlap their upward Minor A waves in the downward direction.

The MACD is hugging the zero line and is as flat as a pancake. One thing is clear. We did not crash today either, like yesterday, and the day before ...

A reminder is provided that the Payroll Employment Report is supposed to come out tomorrow morning.

Have a good start to your evening.

TraderJoe