Tuesday, June 23, 2020

Simplest Answer

The simplest answer has the red Minor B wave ending in a slight truncation at today's high. The ES hourly chart is shown, below, with all of the correct degree labels applied. For clarity only the ending "c" wave labels are not shown.

Once again we note that 60+ point S&P futures swings did not even show up in the cash market. This was the 'flub' created after White House trade advisor Peter Navarro initially stated that the U.S.-China trade deal was over, requiring his following refutation of that. This wave shows up as the blue minute (b) wave last night.

ES Futures - Hourly  - Minor B Completed?

This upward wave can count as a rare triple-combination to a Minor B wave top. There were two diagonals in this wave, one downward to black minute ((x)), and one upward to blue (a). And, there was one triangle in black minute ((y)) as a blue (b) wave.

Whether there is post pattern behavior that supports this count, or not, remains to be seen. The reason this is the simplest answer is the number of price overlaps that have been created.

A slightly less simple answer would be that, since the latest upward parallel is not broken lower, yet, then the current blue (b) might extend as a flat to make a new blue (b) where the red (b)? is located as an alternate, and a new high might follow but is not required. All the waves needed are here already.

This is currently a very ugly count. Sometimes B waves are intractable like this wave is. Let's see how it goes.

Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe

18 comments:

  1. TJ, I am very impressed that you came up with a perfectly workable count on this very messy B wave. Having an alternate available in case the correction continues is perfect flexibility. Thanks much for the education you provide through this site.

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  2. Or we have a triangle which works for the futures and the cash index and many other indexes and everything is in sync, which makes it the most probable pattern - https://invst.ly/r88oc

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    1. ..um.. S&P500 cash has that little 'higher high' between your a & b. So, it's hard to see how you see that working in 'cash'.

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  3. Looks pretty clean as 'five-down'..

    https://invst.ly/r8ibw

    TJ

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    1. ES .. now down through yesterday's Peter Navarro spike low.

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    2. ES .. now down through the June 21 low. Looks like an extended fifth wave as waves i and iii were nearly equal in size.

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  4. FYI - NY, NJ, CT announce 14-day quarantine for travelers coming from high Covid states (like FL, TX, AZ, etc.).

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  5. ES.. the prior ((x)) wave low has been exceeded lower.

    https://invst.ly/r8k8l

    TJ

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  6. SPY Fibonacci retrace:
    3/23 (218.26) to 4/29 (294.88) retrace 5/14 (272.99): 38.2% = 302.26
    Today's Low so far is 302.10

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    1. Hi Terry, just the way this is written, it is a bit hard to decipher. Could you either explain more, or show a chart?

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    2. Hi TJ:
      This takes the distance from a beginning point Low (on 3/23) at 218.26 to the ending point High on 4/29 (at 294.88) which is used for the Fibonacci extension (38.2%, etc.) that begin from the retrace point on 5/14 (at 272.99).

      Sorry I haven't learned how to show a chart.

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    3. Perhaps I should use the term Extension, which is used in charting tools, but that extension begins from the retrace point.

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    4. .. I tried it but still don't follow. To post a chart, you save a chart to your preferred photo-sharing site (Imgur, etc.) and post the link to the chart.

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    5. ..ok .. I was able to make it work. The reason it didn't work is that both Investing.com and TradingView.com don't have correct daily price bars for the day of 5/14. They are showing 276.37 for the low on 5/14. Barchart.com is showing the data you have of 272.99, and it works from there.

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    6. Thanks TJ: Here's a link from Trade Station
      https://imgur.com/a/GWCkiF1

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  7. I don't know if it will form properly in the after-hours, but I've been watching the pattern off the bottom and it has the 'potential' to form a contracting diagonal (possibly leading). If the measurements hold, and if the low holds tomorrow 'might' be an upward correction day.

    https://invst.ly/r8n3k

    Invalidation points for waves ((4)), and ((5)), and for the potential diagonal as a whole are shown.

    TJ

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    1. ..remember, a 'leading' diagonal can not fail. So a new high must be made. Only ending diagonals may fail.

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