Monday, September 30, 2019

End of the Month

U.S. Debt Clock: $22.64 Trillion
ES Daily Candle: Lower High, Higher Low, Higher Close: Inside Candle
Market Posture: Neutral-to-negative and Probing Waves
Daily Swing Line: Lower (Lower High, Lower Low), but can go neutral over 2,993
Daily Bias: Down (Settle Below 18-day SMA)

Today, we were able to count five-waves up from Friday's low on the S&P500 cash index, in near real time, with a near perfect timing of the turn (see this LINK). After the cash close, the futures lifted significantly higher, and made a higher high. We had noted in today's comments that it was "the end of the month, and some sloppiness due to window-dressing was possible." Likewise, tomorrow is the first day of the month and that could mean inflows from the usual sources (401K's, company pension plans, corporate bonuses, dividend reinvestment plans, etc.)  As a result, the daily ES chart remains the same. The minute ((b)) wave may have bottomed Friday.

ES Futures - Daily - No Change

Just one reminder - should the minute ((b)) wave decide to extend in time, which seems less likely at this point, then, by the principles of degree labeling, since we are saying it is a smaller wave degree than X2, then it must take less time than all of X2. So far, it is fine.

Have a good start to the evening and to your week,
TraderJoe

26 comments:

  1. Hey Joe . What about b target for october 2nd ,13 td. , whereas x2 was 21 td's? Fibs.

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  2. Well, here is the first of the month money.

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  3. Market drops on bad ISM - Manufacturing report:

    10:00a
    ISM manufacturing index drops to 47.8 in September from 49.1

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    Replies
    1. 47.8 is the worst ISM result since July 2009.
      Probabilities of a recession are growing and historically, according to this video source, they are as follows

      ISM < 50% --> 65% recession probability
      ISM < 47% --> 80% recession probability
      ISM < 46% --> 100% recession probability

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    2. You are welcome, sometimes macro events can be significant for wave counting

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  4. XLF broke the previous low and confirmed the LD down

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  5. ES futures 5-min can 'at least' be counted as five in a diagonal.

    https://invst.ly/fq2ty

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ..it 'could' turn into more, so watch the lengths closely. ((5)) can not become longer than ((3)) and maintain a diagonal.

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    2. ..diagonal lengths have, in fact, broken lower.

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  6. This morning's high completed an expanded flat that began at last Tuesday's low. Same formation in all the indexes.

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  7. I kept thinking a swift move down would only come off of China meeting but forgot about ISM. But the LD down, WXY flat 2 count is looking good so far.

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    Replies
    1. To make it more certain they'll need to extend this wave to 1.62 or beyond.

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    2. If this is the bigger wave 3 down then it should only retrace 38-50% for nested the 1-2 then flush

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  8. Now five non-overlapping waves down in a new channel to roughly c = a.

    https://invst.ly/fr346

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. we may have had a tiny triangle before the low. Price had played with upper trend channel line, but needs to break it decisively for a retrace wave .

      https://invst.ly/frpl8

      TJ

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    2. ..now a much more decisive break of upper channel line.

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  9. From VIX bottom at 10am to HOD I can see a diagonal probably finished.

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  10. SPX has overlapped the August chop tops also.

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  11. Interesting. I was expecting a sell signal from algo on todays's decline, but...no cigar. Could it be a bullish falling wedge?
    Volume also not supporting decline...so far...

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  12. The DOW made a new low at the end of the day for "five-waves-down". ES did not, yet.

    https://invst.ly/fsykh

    TJ

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  13. One of four signals fired with fill of 2938.84 gap...

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  14. Does anyone know if ES tends to lead cash index, or the reverse?

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  15. Beware of the running flats and very shallow retraces in wave 3s.

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  16. A new post was started for the next day.

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