Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Different Day, Same Drill

U.S. Debt Clock: $22.53 Trillion
ES Daily Candle: Lower High, Lower Low, Lower Close: Trend Candle
Market Posture: Neutral and Probing Waves
Daily Swing Line: Up (Higher Low, Higher High)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Over 18-day SMA)

Over the holiday weekend the overnight futures were lower on the implementation of tariffs, protests in Hong Kong, and dislocations due to the hurricane. As a result stocks opened with a gap lower, and then further pulsed lower when the a weak ISM Manufacturing Index came out at 49.1 (less than the critical 50 level) at 10 am ET.

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Gap Lower

The long term view was explained in the weekend video, and the chart above is consistent with it. Prices gapped lower, traded lower, and closed lower. Such a candle can be considered confirmation of the spinning top candle or inverted hammer candle referred to in Friday's blog post. The low of the day was near the dotted orange line which is represents the support provided by the highs of the green candles in the lower half of the range. It is also near the 18-day SMA. The battle at the 18-day SMA rages on.

Today was the first gap downward since mid-August. Once again, in order to increase the likelihood of a third wave lower, then price should respect the dotted magenta down trend line shown. The daily MACD is still below the zero line.

Have a good start to the week.
TraderJoe

50 comments:

  1. Thank you for the video! I found a nice site that explains debt and gdp. They say we are around 104% debt to gdp whereas the PIGGS are into the 120's. From information that I can find. Here is the link: https://www.thebalance.com/debt-to-gdp-ratio-how-to-calculate-and-use-it-3305832

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  2. Joe -
    I quite understand your desire to have participants use the correct terminology and to apply the correct degree analysis for labeling. In this regard, Im not sure why your post today again suggests that Friday's candle may have been an inverted hammer. It was not. I have attached an example from Steve Nison that illustrates an inverted hammer. Friday's candle had neither the proper form nor location. I point this out in the same vein as you would do for someone improperly identifying a wave structure.

    https://imgur.com/r4r1ut8

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    Replies
    1. Actually, the pattern you are showing is an inverted hanging man.

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    2. Gary, good post. Nison is a well known candlestick expert.

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  3. Anyone wave counting VIX? Based on it I think a decision on the break of the range will be made very soon.

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    Replies
    1. Very difficult to count due to massive synthetic short vol trade and relentless attempts to suppress and keep risk/parity trades viable.
      I have never before seen vol reading so completely divorced from true market risk. More incredibly, it is clear that this distortion can go on for far longer than one would have ever thought possible. We all know how it is going to end, just no idea when, unfortunately....

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  4. I'm inclined to believe this wave is corrective until it breaks previous highs.. Mainly because of DAX, which looks like it's nearly completed C of ii and hitting the 62 retrace.

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    Replies
    1. Also, look at Shanghai (SHCOMP). 5 waves up from Aug lows with textbook EWO profile

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    2. Daily Chart Speak:

      That 5 up in Shanghai looks like a C wave (since Aug 6th) of an expanded flat. The impulse down completed on June 6th.

      As you said, many of the world indices are looking like they're completing a wave 2 retrace. Exception are the Asian markets, Singapore, HongKong, and Japan looks like the wave 2 can retrace some more

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    3. Yes it seems they are all lining up. Add FTSE to the list. Of course they can always extend the 5th for a few days, maybe with an ED.

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  5. Price is already attacking the lower channel line on the ES 15-min.

    https://invst.ly/b-e3k

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ..very near 38% x iii (or c). Channel dropped to accommodate wave.

      https://invst.ly/b-ey6

      TJ

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    2. @Elliott_Trader Should we continue to expect NO wave counts on your short term charts?

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  6. Anybody working a gold 4hr contracting diagonal?

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  7. Trying for the higher high now.

    https://invst.ly/b-gp8

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. I see you marked the indicator in circle, why?? any emphasis? Thanks

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    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    3. Similar to the Elliott wave Osc. confirms the wave 4 by being below the zero line.

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  8. Finally over the high

    https://invst.ly/b-mx6

    TJ

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  9. I have a hard time seeing ES not going through this resistance. Knocking four times now.

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  10. ES is through resistance!!
    On August 29, 2019 at 11:22 AM I wrote in regard to Cash

    "Yep, as I said yesterday could see WXY pattern up to gap fill at approx 2953 (Aug 2nd). Coincides with 61.8 fib at approximately that level (2950-2955) and the 150MA on 2h time frame. It might be more advantageous to look at it from this point view instead changing counts every 2 hours.
    Today, (so far) we have stopped exactly at that red downward slopping trendline."

    My targets should be hit tomorrow morning - Imagine what would have happened if I used someone else's count
    #doyourownresearch

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. this site is about learning. the counts are secondary. not much difference in big picture between wxy or any other count which resolves to near term impulse lower.

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    2. @KS .. the implication of the word "used" in your comment pertains to trading or investing. No other way around it. You are attempting to hijack the purpose of this site from wave counting to trading, and I won't allow it. In the first instance, I clearly outlined a way that prices could proceed higher. In the second instance, with regard to trading, although I do 'not' provide trading or investment advice I have previously published Ira Epstein's Guidelines for trading (Ira is a broker). If you have not read them yet, they are at this link:

      http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2015/11/paraphrase-of-ira-epsteins-rules-for.html

      If you will take the time to read them, you will clearly see that the 18-day SMA is used as a "filter" on all decisions. It is the "line in the sand". As such, "nothing" would have happened if you 'used' someone else's count.

      Wave counting and trading are separate and distinct disciplines. This site deals 'only' with wave counts - of which you have offered none. If you don't respect this site as a wave-counting site then your account will be dealt with appropriately. I sense you have a big ego around this stuff. I highly recommend you take it elsewhere.

      TJ

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    3. ..oh, and P.S. your 'magic' and 'all-important' 2,950 - 55 has been blown away this morning, too.

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    4. Elliott_Trader - You remind me of TRUMP. You simply can't take any criticism nor will you admit any missteps in your wave counting. You are doing these folks a huge disservice. I have offered wave counts and I have shown them. If you are too inept to remember or check them, then that's your problem. I have seen your work and I'm glad I take your "wave counting" with a pinch of salt. If I had taken your wave counts into consideration I would have lost money. I gave you a target last week and it was hit. I don't care if 2950 was taken out. I was long and I made money and I have the proof to show it. Besides, my job is not to get out at tops. You claim to know more than EWI but you have made many missteps and you can't take any criticism. I have saved your work and I will continue to use this website to remain "flexible" but don't worry, you will never hear from me again.

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    5. @KS .. before a larger triangle was a even a 'gleam' in anyone's eye here, I published this potential count.

      Larger Triangle Possible
      http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2019/08/larger-triangle-possible.html

      You can ignore what I've written. You can ignore what "patient, flexible and probing" means. You can continue to just be 'mean' and not appreciative of what you get for free. Keep it up, and the site will go to "moderated comments only". Your choice.

      Delete
    6. @KS ..I am not like Trump as I did not take a magic marker and "redraw" the lines of the August potential triangle. They were there in August. It is now September. I just decided to stay "loose and flexible" around these waves.

      You, on the other hand are like the 10-year-old child screaming, "Look at me, look at me. I made money! I made money! You, E_T, didn't make money. I made the money." Fact is you have no idea how much money I made or did not. Oh, and now, rather than contribute your super-mature wave-counting insights, you would rather "take your ball and go home". Poor little baby. Poor little immature toddler.

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  11. https://ibb.co/6RZYbV7

    DAX target is to take out the gap around 12100-12200
    SMI new highs

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  12. ES has tagged the 78.6% Fibonacci retrace level to within a tick.

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    Replies
    1. ES price is also pushing out on the upper daily Bollinger Band.

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    2. The triangle from the video is now given about 50:50 odds with the wave 2.

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  13. Piggybacking on the triangle, I know the e-wave can itself be a triangle, but don't know if this is otherwise valid based on measurements. Just a thought.

    http://tos.mx/dD6tLh

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    Replies
    1. … a thought that can't be matched to futures.

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  14. On an hourly basis, this wave is exceptionally close to c = a, if b is a triangle. Something to keep in mind: the ((C)) wave down is longer than the ((A)) wave down, so they 'must' be of the same degree or else ((C)) is of a higher degree, but we already know the latter 'can not' be the case as prices have been exceeded to the high side.

    https://invst.ly/c1iu6

    TJ

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  15. Just a chart I made for you all to tear apart as we learn the EW.

    1. The C wave is measured 1<3<5
    2. Wave 1 is overlapped by wave 4 as a possible diagonal
    3. A problem is that the C wave did go over 78.6% as noted by Joe above but now close to trading at it now
    4. Also A is relatively equal to C

    https://imgur.com/yXcieBt

    Let me know what you think
    TJChuck

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    Replies
    1. Ok....the master (TJ) published the chart above I did not see it yet as I was typing....hopefully mine can help add to it.

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    2. ..can 'also' be just w-x-y with ((w)) where your ((a)) is. Not hung up on it either way at the moment.

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  16. Big picture, could we be headed to new highs to complete a larger triangle, combining the May and July highs with a September one? With this move the start of the E wave?

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    Replies
    1. hi .. Kevin .. I don't think so in the manner you described, but your terminology is unclear. My weekend video shows a much larger triangle somewhat like what you are proposing but different. See Sunday's post if you have not seen it yet.

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  17. Watch hourly Crude closely. It has three waves down following five waves up. Could develop into more.

    https://invst.ly/c1rh5

    TJ

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  18. What are the odds the stock indexes will hit new highs, and if we see new highs, what kind of count would we be calling it?

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    Replies
    1. Please see the next day's post, which is up as I write this. Thanks for being patient.

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  19. ES 15-minute just overlapped 2,971.50 and now has the possibility of a contracting ending diagonal. Cash does not.

    https://invst.ly/c1ur2

    It is very hard to see it as a 1-2-i-ii because the internal waves all look like like three-waves sequences.

    But it must meet "all" of the rules, including that ((4)) must remain less than ((2)), and ((5)) must remain less than ((3)). And, yes, ((5)) may fail.

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. Thanks! Regarding crude oil, it's been tracking the market pretty closely for a while now. Should be at to give additional clues.

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  20. It will be interesting to see if the next two days/candles are anything like the two that followed the final big green day before the crash wave back in 87.

    https://acting-man.com/blog/media/2018/11/2-historical-crash-patterns.png

    So far it's been tracking quite closely.

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  21. A new post has been started for the next day.

    ReplyDelete