ES Daily Candle: Lower High, Lower Low, Lower Close: Doji Candle (Hanging Man?)
Market Posture: Neutral and Probing Waves
Daily Swing Line: Up (Higher Low, Higher High)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Over 18-day SMA)
Yesterday, we said a fourth wave could trade lower yet. It did. The ES found some support at 2,957 and then bounded higher - likely on the new products announcement from Apple, Inc. The DOW did make a new recovery high - possibly after a triangle formation (see second chart, below).
|ES Futures - Hourly Close - Deeper Wave iv|
Here is that triangle in the cash DOW. It was proven today by the new higher high over the ((B)) wave.
|DJIA Cash Index - 15 min - Triangle Wave iv|
As a reminder, triangles often precede the last wave up in a count. We should also note that, even though APPL came out with a spate of new products, so far, the Nasdaq Futures (NQ) did not make a higher high.
During the comments for yesterday, we noted that if the SP500 hourly cash prints two full candles under the hourly channel, then it is possible we had the highest high yesterday on September 9th, and are already counting down in that index (i.e. it might be slightly out-of-sync with the Dow).
The ES daily slow stochastic is over 80 for either a third or fourth day (I have seen discrepant calculations) and it embedded.
The odds remain about 50:50 between the two daily scenarios that were presented. It got increasingly harder to count a fifth wave up today in the ES futures in a nice clean manner. It's not impossible but the market has thrown a money-wrench into it on a short term basis. So, for that reason we remain flexible, calm and patient and hope you do, as well.
Have a good start to the evening.