Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed lower
SPX Candle: Lower High, Lower Low, Lower Close - Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)
By the narrowest of margins, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, cash index, just missed making a new lower low below the Feb 8th low. By 173 points, the DJIA stopped (today) shy of it's 23,360 low. That is less than a day's trading. In the process it retraced more than 90% of it's up wave to Feb 27.
Looking at the DJIA futures, on the weekly chart. This put's the futures skating right on the channel up trend line, of course.
|DJIA Futures - Weekly - Sitting on Lower Channel Line|
This is a very precarious position. The margin is razor thin - even thinner than above in the cash index. Some of today's metrics include: once again, about four times as many declining issues as advancing issues; more new lows than new highs; and more declining volume than advancing volume.
The S&P500 Cash Index stopped for the day just below it's 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. If the market wishes to form a triangle here, it can do it. But, the odds to do not favor it without first seeing higher high days.
If you use the ES S&P500 E-Mini Futures, the daily swing line is still downward, and price closed under the 18-day SMA, the 100-day SMA and lower daily Bollinger Band. The daily slow stochastic is in over-sold territory, but there is no sign of it curling up yet. So, the best conclusion is that momentum is currently pointing down.
The yellow area on the chart above is the daily / weekly fire danger zone that I wrote about in several of the prior posts. Keep your eyes on things closely.
Have a very good start to your weekend.