So I decided this morning to look at the whole up wave using The Eight Fold Path Methodology and to let it be the arbiter. Here is the chart that results.
|SP500 Cash - Half Hourly - The Eight Fold Path|
If you have studied The Eight Fold Path Methodology, you can see instantly that many of the elements of that method are missing. With 140 candles on the half-hourly chart (well within the required 120 - 160 candles), then the SP500 30-minute chart is the applicable time frame for this "wave under study."
- First and foremost, there is no higher momentum in the middle of a "third wave". This is critical as a third wave does not have the right momentum measurements on the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO or AO in this chart).
- The move does not channel well at all.
- The b wave, or what would be the fourth in an impulse is much larger in point size than the potential second wave ending at the end of the day on 13 Feb. Usually, they are similar.
- If you draw an initial channel surrounding 9 Feb and 13 Feb as a lower channel boundary, no wave exceeds the upper channel boundary - which would be characteristic of a third wave.
- The call of an "a" wave up from 9 Feb, resulted in calling an 'exact' turn for the "b" wave. This refers to the same chart in the link above.
So, that should help eliminate some of the options. The best alternate to this count is that b is .a of a flat, and c is .b of a flat. Then, Friday's down move is .c of the flat.
P.S. Another dead give-away: where is the 1.618 x 1 wave?
Hope this helps.