Friday, March 9, 2018

Nasdaq 100 Futures Higher High

Market Outlook: Now Getting Higher Volatility
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close - Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

Buoyed by the payroll employment report, stocks as measured by the S&P500 cash index had a strong day today. We had suspected as much, yesterday, and said a target could be the upper daily Bollinger Band. It was. The ES E-Mini S&P500 cash index settled right on it. Stocks were a bit stronger than the first target we proposed, the wave 3 parallel, and when they passed that target the Bollinger Band was called into play.

A major concern for today was the exceptionally low volume in both equities and their futures. You are encouraged to look these up to see just how low they were. (Hint: the WSJ again reports only about 3.3 billion on the NYSE).

Here is a daily chart showing the NQ futures surpassing the previous high, and has a comparison with the cash S&P500 Index.. This versus one major Elliott Wave service stating the top was in - at least in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

NQ Futures versus S&P500 Cash Index

There are still many ways to count this market. Two of them are shown. The NQ chart shows the potential impulse count, with a flat second wave The S&P500 shows the potential diagonal count, with a flat b wave. Again, I have no preference to which occurs - although without a clear and well-formed triangle, one might suspect a diagonal for a top.

The thing to do now is to draw a further parallel, upward on i, ii and a,b as at the end of the day on Friday we got no sufficiently clear indication the up move was over. Then, monitor that parallel to see if it breaks down.

It might be a good thing for you to try over the weekend - which I do hope is a good one for you.


  1. Is it safe to assume that you think wave 4 is complete, or is there still a possibility that we are in b of 4?

    1. The weekly SPX chart now has 107 candles and is now the applicable time frame for The Eight Fold Path Method. And the EWO is not near the zero line yet. This still makes a triangle possible, especially given the 'length in time' of the rise to wave 3 at the 2.618 Fibonacci extension. So, this can still be the b wave of a triangle. Nothing is yet ruled out, due to the Fourth Wave Conundrum - except a double zigzag lower would add a lot of price points on to a 38% 4th wave, so that seems 'less' likely, but not impossible.

  2. Please see Saturday's Weekend Post "Because Now You Can See It", for a further update, particularly of the NQ count.