Thursday, March 29, 2018

Higher High Day

Market Outlook: Now Getting Higher Volatility
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed lower
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close - Yin-Yang Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

Many equity indexes made a higher high today than yesterday. That is encouraging for the case of the potential triangle that we have been showing for several weeks now. But still, we would prefer to see a higher swing high over the high of Tuesday's candle to better confirm the potential triangle.

The whippy behavior continues to be characteristic of triangles (and / or their cousins diagonals). Stocks as measured by the S&P500 cash index had closed yesterday at 2,605. With the futures up in the morning, the cash market gapped up +11 points to 2,616, traded up to 2,660 during the course of the day, and backed off towards the end of the session to closed at 2,641.

The intraday swings continue to be difficult to keep up with, but the market still seems to be hammering out the support of the (a) to (c) trend line above.

It's my understanding most, if not all, US Equity markets are closed tomorrow, and they re-open on Monday. But on Monday U.K. equity markets may be closed.

Have a good weekend.


  1. Joe, if Monday's rally was wave a of D,then today should have been c of D. However, today's rally couldn't even take out Monday's high. In the after hours, SPY is already down almost 7 points, which is 25 points down from today's high. So, I see this week's action as either a truncated flat to today's high, OR, another way to count the decline from 2802 would be an A wave to 2695, and then a B wave running triangle to today's high. Obviously, both of these counts are extremely bearish, and that will continue to be my bias until I see an actual impulse wave up from a low. What this week accomplished was to relieve all the oscillators from being oversold. Now they have room from another leg down.

    1. Forgot to mention the 3rd option: an abc from 2802 to 2585, and now in a triangle from there. Waves a,b,c of that triangle completed at today's high.

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