Still Some Odds

Tonight, I wanted to briefly cover another alternative I thought of which says that the decline is not quite over, yet. Previously, I have showed you ways I think the market could go higher (see post at this LINK). Here is one where I show you a way that the market could go lower. The is on the ES 8-hr chart and it is response to the question, "What if the market is in a smaller, not a larger, triangle?"

If I reconfigure the decline as five minute-degree waves, with an extended fifth wave shown as xⓥ, then that could be the Minor A wave, down. The smaller triangle could be a Minor B wave up. And this could be followed by a Minor C wave down to overlap the 2022 high - which hasn't happened yet.

So far, we have one zigzag up - shown as (a), (b), (c) to ⓐ of B. So, a lot more market churn could happen in the news if this scenario were to play out before the Minor C wave down got underway.

To be fair, the B wave could also be "any three", such as a double-zigzag so it could play out that the level of B is higher - more near the prior minute fourth wave - which is often a target for B waves.

And then, under this scenario the C wave could be either an impulse or a tough-on-the-nerves diagonal.

All, this is just an option at this time. IF we trade above ⓐ of the triangle, and significantly above the minute fourth wave, circle-iv, then the option simply becomes lower odds.

The problem at the moment is we are in no-one's land, and we still need to count locally until the larger structure becomes more clear.

Have an excellent rest of the evening and the weekend,

TraderJoe