We said we were counting Gold (GC Futures) upward in parallels until we could no longer. The upward wave measurements recently have locally gotten disproportionate. So, we went back to the wave count to see what other look makes sense. The monthly chart of GOLD is below with the tentative adjustment and a new parallel.
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| GOLD (GC Futures) - Monthly - New Parallel ? |
The suggestion in this count is that the overall diagonal, down, from 2011 was a Primary Ⓐ wave down, followed by a stubby Primary Ⓑ wave, and a truncated Primary Ⓒ wave down to Cycle wave IV. Then, the 2020 up wave is a Primary ① wave, and so on, as labeled. This provides the proportion that Primary ③ is now a little longer than 1.618 x Primary ① on linear scale. One will note the EWO is on a maximum. Soon, a Primary ④th wave could get underway. Note that both the right edge of the lower trend channel has risen above the Primary ① location and so has the monthly EMA-34.
Having said that, please note that GOLD is starting to make the news regularly, as below.
And, as Ira indicates, there are many, many "buy side" analysts recommending GOLD, so this could be a sign sentiment is heating up and a correction is due.
Nothing on the charts says GOLD is a sell yet. We don't know that Primary ③ is over. But GOLD is up to the upper daily Bollinger Band in an over-bought condition and not embedded. So, it bears watching yet. And any fourth wave could be very grindy, meaning that it could be difficult to trade.
Still, no other proportion seems reasonable at this time on the longer-term time scale. Price has surpassed most other measurements of comparison with smaller degree labels.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
Not only is GC trading above the bollinger band on the daily, but also the weekly, the monthly, 3month, 12month...
ReplyDeleteI'm unsure what you mean by "grindy". The (2) to me seemed slow and methodical for a flat. I would start guessing that (4) may be more choppy or whippy for better alternation. Maybe even shorter in time than (2), unlike some fourth waves.
I had a triangle in mind. Parts of those are grindy. Parts are whippy. But it certainly can be other things if it gets started. TJ.
DeleteTJ, Thx for the update. Moving that four over reminds me of adjusting the dow count in the 30's to the truncation spot. I need to pay more attention to this.
ReplyDeleteSPY - Looks like we may get the required overlap of the March 13 low, keeping the down diagonal alive.
ReplyDeleteActually, SPY got the overlap on April 9. My comment above should have read SPX.
DeleteGOLD (GC futures) 1-hr: in 111 candles now testing the lower parallel. Bears watching closely for a new high. Overnight wave can be considered a Flat.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Co6RLjta/
TJ
If this is a bigger ttriangle in sp then look for b of B trying to play a small triangle
ReplyDeleteES 1-hr: Not much is proved yet except the measurement that we tapped 90% upward. So b wave of Flat or next impulse. Price is currently moving up 'towards' the 18-day SMA.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/OMVfK4ve/
TJ
There are gaps to be filled.
ReplyDeleteES futures Sunday night gap would be around 5,396 or so.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/aPoIw9fQ/
TJ
Filled! 🔔
DeleteSeems like this could be a triangle for B this week
ReplyDeleteSPY (cash) 15-min - same count as ES earlier; still in the up channel. I guess it's up to the close.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/hwnrjZTQ/
TJ
Gee .. Goldman & Blackrock didn't want 'em at the afternoon high (near the 18-day SMA)? Maybe a triangle fourth or a truncation top. Wave is taking a very long time.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UMTsLoCZ/
TJ
fyi .. the triangle would invalidate below 5,391 but not close yet. TJ.
DeleteA weak fifth wave. Trump (and the Commerce Secretary Lutnick) didn't do the PPT any favors over the weekend by blabbing that tariffs on semiconductors would be coming pretty soon. That quickly offset the boost at the open from the carve-outs for Apple.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ