The swing-line indicator now has a lower high and a lower low underneath the 18-day SMA on the daily chart of ES futures shown below.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Lower High, Lower Low |
Daily price is now down past the lower daily Bollinger Band, with a close below it, dropping the odds to 6 - 7% of a further lower close below the band (not impossible, just lower odds). But the daily slow stochastic is not yet even in over-sold territory. So, the trend is down until it isn't.
Further, I have sketched in the wave ii to wave iv trend line with a parallel copy placed on wave iii. This is Elliott's second parallel technique and is often the first target for a fifth wave, v. The next targets, if the first is exceeded, would be 0.618 x net [ i - iii ], or v = iii. So, there could be more downside. Just be cognizant the Payroll Employment report is coming up tomorrow, and it could wreak havoc with volatility.
We will note that 'many' chartists will not be very persuaded there is an uptrend coming until or unless there is an outside bar up, tomorrow, with the close respectably in the upper third of the candle. Then, the low of that bar would have to hold for two days, and price would have to make a close over the 18-day SMA again.
So, be careful. One initial target is dead ahead. Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Gold/silver ratio broke to the upside today. It is 98.4 as I type this, a level rarely seen nor held long. I was quite taken aback how quickly gold got bought up during US cash while silver held its losses. I'm curious to see where this ends up by end of month.
ReplyDeleteI don't think you want to be long silver here tbh
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/aMrMcHyV
That angle of descent has me concerned about upside. Here is my most bearish labeling.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/GINj1B4
https://imgur.com/XyIN37x
https://imgur.com/2NRJN00 The expanding diagonal in this one could also be a b wave of a flat that ended this morning.
Payroll is looking for 131k which is hard for me to believe and the head fed wizard speaks at 11:25ET
This would be my 'most bearish' labeling, but it is cartoon numbers as nothing is proved yet. It is 'speculation', and yet price is on the lower daily Bollinger Band.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Qn7UDlTl/
TJ
Joe, back to the higher degree sp500 making diagonal. We know that we have had confusion on the ES futures as far as how we deal with rolls etc.. in forming historical charts. When i look at a longer term ES chart I am effectively analyzing the strategy of an investor badically getting the sp500 return less dividends and paying/receiving the carry. The reason i am bringing this up is becasue the carry has become large a cost with higher rates (versus small gains in QE years), ....so the ES generic i use is <2% away from overlap and THAT is why i was congrtualting you earlier today....
ReplyDeletehttps://postimg.cc/p9dM0TNy
https://postimg.cc/p9dM0TNy
FWIW, VIX is telling a cautionary tale. Volatility highs are typically seen at the completion of 3rd waves in an impulse. VIX today took out the March 10 high. As improbable as that seems, the most intense selling may yet be ahead...of course it could be something other than an impulse is unfolding.
ReplyDeleteNVDA Daily - just a chart. We don't know the fifth wave is done. But the pattern is clear.
ReplyDeleteNVDA Chart Daily
TJ
Futures abt 60 points away from the overlap
ReplyDeleteI modified the local count and went with the flat. Somewhere in here should be the point of recognition.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/gSpqFLt
Interesting to note that a 1.618 extension gets us down to the high of early early 2022.
Here is my attempt overnight. I wish triangle would have got back into the wave it was correcting but it is the overnight.
ReplyDeletea = c off the bottom with overlap.
https://imgur.com/fYoWZaj
should be some sharp bounces in here to alternate with the flats coming down.
Delete228k on jobs, way above consensus.
ReplyDeleteI think a wave counting stop would be at ES 5375.
ReplyDeleteSeries gaps tend to appear at the start, and end, of extended bullish and bearish price action.
ReplyDeleteI can easily see tomorrow being point of recognition below.
DeleteQuarterly chart ending 3/31/25 of SPY has an outside down candle.
ReplyDeleteAll.. I said yesterday that 'unless' you counted the down wave in this fashion, you were 'breaking-the-rules' of Elliott Wave. Please stop posting charts that 'break-the-rules'..ahem, like running triangles that don't overlap their parent wave, for example.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/XDQXzCjF/
Keep your wits about you in the volatility and "follow-the-rules".
TJ
Blue i in this case is larger degree red 1; and it is likely that blue i is the extended wave in the sequence. TJ.
Deletefyi - NYSE adv / dec = 153 to 2,532 (sic, not a typo) = 1 to 16.5! There's that kick-off (or climax). We shall see. TJ.
ReplyDeletefyi - 78.6% downward retrace; a hold nearby here 'might' signal a triangle. Watch closely. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: no triangle. Straight down into wave blue v. The lack of a triangle just became a huge 'tell'.! TJ
ReplyDeleteThere's the new low (chart is behind the usual 10-min or so).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/h10WQkTd/
So, IF the count is correct, then the rules say wave v should be shorter than wave iii.
TJ
It is like Sovereigns taking out money from stock markets.
ReplyDeleteJust fyi - ES 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen, the daily S3 pivot has just been tagged. TJ
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: so, this wave v is good down to 5,102 or thereabouts. Longer than that and it will invalidate and force a larger count. When counting waves correctly, one of the best advantages is 'clear' invalidation points that tell you when you are incorrect as well as correct. No other method (support & resistance, fundamentals, moving averages) provide you with this information.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MVQag9ya/
TJ
ES 30-min: this time-frame now has 1) a hammer candle and a follow-through candle. This suggests lowering the 'wave-counting-stop' to the top of wave iv above 5,322. TJ.
DeleteES 5-min: 'be on your toes'! Down wave is inside of 150% of the up wave. So, tricky things are possible such as 1) running triangle, 2) expanded flat, 3) failed flat, 4) also 'possible' expanding diagonal fifth wave of a higher degree than the first one, subject to possible invalidation. Also, FED Chair Powell on deck in 11 minutes (according to Forex calendar).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8HXP3czG/
Be very, very careful.
TJ
Fed not supporting Trump at all. Are they both looking to squeeze the market and then some big player to get in ?
DeleteWatching a potential expanding diagonal downward form this mornings high. We would be in wave four with invalidation at 5300.25.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/9w0DK3q
DeleteOne should watch for failure here, but in a third wave, odds favor a new low.
Deletefyi only - summary of Powell comments on CNBC.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/04/powell-sees-tariffs-raising-inflation-and-says-fed-will-wait-before-further-rate-moves.html
TJ
Preliminary base channel.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/0vTcLAu
Wait and see sounds appropriate. Still shocked with drastic tariffs.
ReplyDeleteFrom what I can see on the ES 5-min, there is a new low, and it resulted from a triangle. For the expanding diagonal 5th wave, then it would target 5,134 but needs to stay above 5,102ish.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UBaA47xG/
TJ
ES 5-min: there's the local lower low.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5whPGbAK/
TJ
Nike reversed.
DeleteNKE, LULU, GES, GAP all positive on possible tariff deal with Vietnam.
DeleteNasdaq is more than 20% from its top.
ReplyDeleteES .. just broke the prior low of the day. TJ.
ReplyDeletePotential count.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/FhUFNx0q/
TJ
nice
DeleteBoth es and es-mini broke low.
Delete..wave counting stop drops to above 5,200 based on current formations. TJ.
Delete5200 es or es mini?
DeleteNow with expanding ending diagonal valid, I think there is one more 4 and 5 within 3 to go.
ReplyDeleteES 5,200 was hit forcing a potential relabel like this
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/stQcYcRv/
'Maybe' we go down into the close. Maybe not. 'Remember' we are 'below' the daily Bollinger Band. The Smart Money is probably taking some profits here.
TJ
Also, I am now getting 'real-time' bar revisions. Meaning, the bar is revised as active trading is going on. This may be due to "dark-pool" reporting. Very, very nasty stuff, this. TJ.
DeleteHow "dark-pool" effects counting bars. Tried google but didn't understand.
Delete"Dark pools" are off-exchange trades made by big firms and hedge funds to 'hide' their activity from the tape so they can (claim) they can execute their orders better and get better prices. But they are still required to report to the NYSE and consolidated tape before the end of the trading day. That means trades are being reported 'after' but the bars must be revised to include the new data.
Deletehttps://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dark-pool.asp
TJ
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ReplyDeleteES now below 5,134 the minimum target for the expanding diagonal. Price of 5,213 becomes new wave-counting-stop. Chart is behind 10-min; will show the lower low when chart catches up.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/HnmlktaM/
TJ
New daily low on SPX cash with VIX few points below this morning's high.
ReplyDeleteRemember, if we go below 5,102 we will likely be forced to consider additional 1,2's as in further nesting. TJ
ReplyDeleteSeems 5102 got saved, low 5107
DeleteHere is the break of 5,134 for expanding diagonal validation.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/DNOz8URV/
TJ
SPY 2-min: higher high and higher low. We are likely now "out" of the diagonal. We could only be starting a fourth wave, but the diagonal is likely over - even if a lower low is made; it could be part of a Flat or something.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dm99E9bj/
More information needed. Make sure you look at the intraday wave-counting-screen and it would not be remotely positive until over the intraday 18-per SMA. It's all up to the close now. I'm out for the rest of the day.
TJ
Es mini well below 5102
ReplyDeleteI said that could happen. Could be part of a fourth wave - as a flat or expanded flat. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day. TJ.
ReplyDelete