It is just 'interesting' at this point that we have not yet exceeded the high shown in the count that was presented in the blog post of February 13th, and, again, below.
 |
| ES Futures - 90 Min - Top Possible (From Feb 13) |
We are still inside of the range of the down wave from the high. Neither has a lower low been made. There is, of course, a possibility of a new high but that depends on the down wave having been a :3 and not a :5 (possible) and making, say, a triangle for a larger fourth wave. That alternate view would be invalidated if the low of the 13th is exceeded lower. Now is the time to watch and measure carefully, being calm, patient and flexible.
Have a good start to the day,
TraderJoe
ES 1-Hr: at the moment we have ES at a 62% retrace, and at the daily S2 pivot support. One might try drawing a down channel here and see if helps provide any clarity.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/79KnZXLq/
TJ
Here is the updated flat, x, zz count in a channel.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/sEQ1WjW
This mornings low also touched the lower channel on the 4hr impulse.
DeleteES 1-hr: now past a 1.618 down wave, but not down to 78.6% retrace yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vKELvbc5/
TJ
ES 1-Hr: from a count standpoint, from what I can tell there were three non-overlapping waves up in a wedge as a,b,c with c < 1.272 x a. Now, we have taken out the b wave lower. That does not rule out a triangle yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3GB1DTR8/
TJ
That's is real ugliness in both directions, I and 2 of a diagonal?
DeleteSPY 5-min: the 'vol crush machines' look to be in full operation, so this could easily be a diagonal ('possibly' leading) if not more. Watch the low of the pattern.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ya3zW4Aq/
TJ
SPY 5-min: likely an expanded flat after an 'a' wave diagonal for a 'b' wave down that held the low, and now a 'c' wave up into the close. Whippy.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/KsAwkpIg/
TJ
..one might try putting a parallel around that tomorrow. It could go further up. TJ.
DeleteES 1-Hr: a "running triangle" like this can work, subject to the usual triangle invalidations.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fEdNMuve/
If so, it 'may' mean we are inside of the second channel and have not tested a first channel - from the first low - yet. Not that too many people care because they are likely all waiting NVDA earnings after the close.
TJ
..now there is a new low below the (d) wave. TJ.
DeleteSPY 1-Hr: SPY now has this hourly gap-fill.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PQmSaGK7/
'Might' try for 78.6% for a triangle, or, worse, lower.
TJ
SPY 1-Hr: engulfing candle and higher local high after close-approach to 78.6%. Got to respect the idea of a triangle, until/unless disproved.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ggC2fLaX/
TJ
In the NDX, what are the odds that intermediate (5) will extend? https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2023/11/now-we-know-why-ndx.html. That could take us to ~20,000
ReplyDeleteApologies I meant 21,000...it's late.
DeleteSP-Daily From to, is it possible? Thanks
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/13le2y
https://invst.ly/13le2p
2nd one more likely. TJ.
Delete
ReplyDeleteOn ES, I think the idea of any diagonal for a 5 on the 4hr is out because any time frame that would seem to fit this as a 3 has a higher EWO than the last move up.
ES 1-Hr: yesterday's down count in the second channel was correct, as below.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/2RGqMDvH/
Because of NVDA earnings (or the emotions surrounding them), the first channel did not fill out, and left an a,b,c with c > 1.618. This sometimes happens, but not often. Now, with new higher highs, I'll be looking at daily patterns in a little while.
TJ
ES 8-hr: as far as I can tell, this pattern still works on the larger time-frame. On the 8-hr chart, there are now in excess of 100 candles. And price may be working on ⑤ = ①, with an extended third wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/cqcZvUXY/
TJ
I think ④ is w-x-y, failure as a double-combination. TJ.
DeleteFrom what I can see, ⑤ = ① gets price to around 5,095. TJ.
Deletegiven AI mania and nvda (if you look at the nvda chart). the wave you have labelled seems to me like 3rd wave of the move that started from oct of last year.. we should soon see 4th and 5th covering the next quarter and then major correction.
Delete@grr .. Here is a possible path in NVDA. Nothing is 'given' about it. I know, wave ⓐ wasn't 'supposed' to happen either. It hasn't had a 38% correction yet. One is easily due. At least this analysis uses measurements, and not whatever one sees as 'given'.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/13lxyh
TJ
CD forming on ES 1min
ReplyDeleteOff of yesterdays low, I have an extended 1st wave impulse. Both the wave 5 and and contracting diagonal invalidation is 5085 and 5088.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/QK2qvYX
Market did not like the idea, both busted!
DeleteES 8-hr: there is 5,095. Target for 5 = 1 reached. TJ.
ReplyDeleteConsidering todays moon shot, what about this?
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/vUn9bNO
like you said, missed correcting the wave .. I need to stick with the rules or 'any' count becomes possible. TJ.
DeleteES 1-Day: upper daily Bollinger Band reached in over-bought condition (not embedded). Ira indicates this is 'often', nothing works all the time, where pro's are taking profits on positions. Not shorting. There is a difference.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uayaJPTw/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ