Today was an inside day on the ES daily futures. We were counting as such, and our pattern expectations were not unmet. But it does make tomorrow a fairly critical day. Here is the daily chart of the ES futures.
As you can see price is still over the 18-day SMA, imparting a positive bias to the chart. Yet, the swing-line study (developed by Ira Epstein, broker with the Linn Group) has a recent lower low but a higher high.
In order to turn this study downward, it is necessary to make a lower low than yesterday and close below the 18-day SMA before going over the high first. Right now, that hasn't happened yet, and until/unless it does there is not a firm trend in force. But, if it does happen, it would likely be very significant to subsequent price action.
The daily slow stochastic has lost its embedded status, so let's see how it goes. In the meanwhile, one just has to be agnostic, flexible, calm and patient about the situation. A lot of things could happen including closing of the down gap, first, or the formation of a triangle.
Have a great start to your evening,
TraderJoe
https://www.tradingview.com/x/bAGoD5nT/
ReplyDeleteif you expect the down wave to resume, then your b wave up can't be in five subwaves.
Deletethe abv is the c wave. 3rd of c completed during regular hours
ReplyDeleteit will try to close the gap from yesterday...so close to 5020 plus minus..and then the down wave should resume
DeleteSPX
ReplyDeleteDaily chart
Pivot 1 4983
Pivot 2 4996
Close today 5000
Price broke both pivots y'day. We closed above both today. More upside tomorrow and expect to top on Friday. That's the short. Staircase down for 3 months coming
Wonder if that is not a barrier triangle on the 5 minute ES?
ReplyDeleteare we in wave v of c retracement wave? looks like it
ReplyDeleteOne never knows how even the most impulsive looking declines will ultimately resolve. I was kinda thinking irregular flat so a new would not surprise....
ReplyDeleteThis is the best I can do.
ReplyDeletecorrective https://imgur.com/xZZnOAm
impulse https://imgur.com/iscAZ45
This may look stupid but is this why that triangle was so big compared to other waves? It would be a B of 4 and within it a=c.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/Ssf63iS
and notice how the original 4 location (now red A) never got to lower channel line.
Deleteit's not so stupid. It may very well be possible. TJ.
DeleteSPY 30-min: gap closed at c = a, with c in the lower channel half - just as BBR requested.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8ULCrSk9/
TJ
C staying in the lower channel half is a brilliant sign post to help determine impulse vs correction! Thank you thank you!
Deletejust as a remote possibility we have to keep in mind that last high could have been as a result of flat B..and then c was 5 waves down to two days ago....just keeping all the options open
ReplyDeleteyes, it's not so remote. It often happens in a flat that "five down" is not the end of a move. That's why I wrote that there has to be confirmation by a lower low before a higher high. Isn't that what the subject of the main post is about? TJ.
DeleteIn the ES that move down from the 5066 high held support. I would expect a move to 5070-80 and then a possible top.
ReplyDeleteOn a historical note in 1990 the Nikkei 225 hit a high of 38966'ish and the futures tonight are 38835. It only took 34 years to make the round trip. Double top??
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteWell the high tonight in the cash so far is 38663. The futures hit 38870. Could have topped,which would fit well with our markets. We shall wait and see how it goes.
DeleteBtw 34 is a fibonacci number imagine that.
ReplyDeleteSince we are above the levels before gap down on s&p on cpi report.
ReplyDeleteLooks like today a gap up on ppi report.
Stop clearing hunt.
ReplyDeleteLooks like another flat.
DeleteDo you still think so?
DeleteYep, with wave counting stop at es 5012.50.
DeleteGood call!
DeleteNot sure, 2 in that count could use more time. Flat, X, ZZ would accomplish this.
DeleteSPY 30-min: the Principle of Equivalence says the black count and the red count are the same until they are not.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/pcburqPG/
And, I'm not using a dime of my money to find out which.
TJ.
It is likely that only overlap can provide some information. TJ.
DeleteGreat chart, TJ! It really illustrates the "conundrum" 😅
Delete😎 Cool.
DeleteLol! Me neither. OpEx pinning games in full throttle mode. 😊
Deletequestion is when spx makes a new high..will the 5 waves be just it or that will be the 1 of the move started from 4920....life is. not easy
ReplyDeleteUpdated impulse count.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/CgIbufA
Should of used i and ii at the top right, my bad.
DeleteIf correct it would be another example of b wave going way over the guideline of 1.618 x a. c looks to be a nice 1.38 x a
DeleteHave a great weekend all!
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ