Yep, you read it right. Should we now call the S&P500 the S&P5,000 ? It's amazing that the Smart Money that has accounts large enough to move markets couldn't find 0.11 of an S&P point today. The S&P intraday high was 4,999.89, which is 0.11 shy of the mystical round number. Still, regardless of what they did (and they might hit it or pass through it tomorrow), the market's Elliott Wave count is getting very mature on the 4-Hr cash chart below.
There are five clear, non-overlapping waves up in a channel with the waves 2 & 4 (degrees shown are just relative, for now) showing alternation. Wave 2 is a Flat, and wave 4 is a zigzag. The market is also 'torn up'.
We are showing with dashed red lines the locations of fully seven unfilled close-to-open gaps on the chart. Some - or all - of these could fill on the way down. But first we must wait for a decent turn. There are a few upward squiggles that could still play out. Fifth waves can extend. But we'll watch, wait and be patient.
Meanwhile, over in the Crude Oil market (WTI CL futures) we showed this daily chart a couple of times now which suggests Crude is in the process of making five-waves-down if it completes properly.
So, we're on the watch out for a lower low or a failure before perhaps a turn higher. Either way it should be interesting.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
SPX - Pivots
ReplyDeleteMonthly - Bullish
Weekly - Bullish
Daily - Bullish
4hr - Bullish
Here is where we are and where I expect price/time to top. (Feb 16 about 5040) I will be looking also for a daily chart break of the pivot which is currently at 4940. A touch of 4975 will only result in more upside. Note topping is a process so it can last a few days.. I expect the bottom to be late May at 4450-4500. Can't seem to post a chart but I did post it on twitter. @jimmy56541
Per Neely in MEW regarding 5th wave extensions: "wave-5 should be at least equal to the price distance from the beginning of wave 1 through the end of wave 3 added to the end of wave 4. The maximum length should not exceed 261.8% of the length from "0" to the end of wave 3 added to the end of wave 3."
ReplyDeleteIf we are going to see a 5th wave extension that could mean price reaches or exceeds 5092.
Sorry. I didn't mean to confuse you, but I see I have. Let me clarify. When I said there were a few squiggles to play out, I didn't mean to imply the fifth wave would be the Extended wave in the sequence. In the above chart, I should have labeled wave 3 as the extended wave x3. That was discussed already in yesterday's comments. So now I just mean the fifth wave could extend a bit in the overnight/morning to make the fifth of the fifth wave. So, in this chart below, I have labeled x3 for the time being. It is 1.618 x 1.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/V7H9Km6x/
As for targets, when 5 exceeds 5 = 1, then the next most likely target for 5 is the following: 5 = 0.618 x net (1-through-3). So, I have shown that target on that chart, and you can see we are 'there'. That means today has a better than even chance of being a marginal higher-high but then a reversal. I did not mean to imply the fifth wave would become the extended wave in the sequence. What you quoted from Neely was correct.
TJ
Thanks for the clarification.
DeleteES 1-hr: here is the ES hourly, with the exit out of the triangle, and now potentially into the fourth wave of five. A pop over the high might conclude the wave - if the fourth wave holds up.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/w97uPAjh/
TJ
Gold leading expanding diagonal? Works if there is a little truncated high at 2079.7
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/x0gfxG9
getting closer to another rejection https://tos.mx/7BsDlCU
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ