There are some interesting features on this chart. Try to review the degree labels and see if they make sense to you. On the semi-log scale shown the degree labels can be defended, but it would be great to get your feedback on it.
%202023_12%20(5_15_57%20PM)%20Diagonal.png)
Again, for this count to materialize, wave Intermediate (3) 'must' make a new all-time high, then an overlapping fourth wave, (4), would be looked for. This would be followed by a fifth wave up, (5).
The count would reflect the "too-far, too-fast" nature of the stock market's rise since 2009. A couple of the applicable Fibonacci ratios are shown. For example, wave ③ = 2.618 x ①, and wave ④ = 0.382 times wave ③ - when measured from the top of wave ③, itself, not the top of Intermediate (X). Keep in mind these are the Fibonacci ratios on the semi-log scale.
From a degree labeling perspective, waves IV and V are Cycle degree, waves ① - ⑤ are Primary degree and waves (1) - (5) are Intermediate degree.
Diagonal diagram added from Frost & Prechter, Figure 8.
Have a great rest of the holiday weekend.
TraderJoe
(Y) larger than circle 2?
ReplyDeleteGood point. And from what I learnt from TJ on this blog, this would be a diagonal pattern if we are expecting an overlapping fourth wave. That means internal waves should be simple zig-zag. However, wave (1) is five wave impulse, and I can't fit a simple zig-zag for wave (3). Instead, for wave (3), I agree with the WXY waves shown by TJ a few days ago.
DeleteThx for bringing up the (1). Using last Sundays post on ZZ,s as a guide, we would have to conclude that it cannot be anything but an impulse.
Delete@BBRider .. pls don't misunderstand, last Sunday's post was only about 'Double' zigzags. Wave (1) can be a simple zigzag, as follows.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/A0LXwowP/
First, there is 'only' C = A, and there is no third wave that breaks above the channel. This was discussed at length at the time. It is 'only' in DZZ and TZZ that the overlaps are required.
TJ
@migration .. see response above. TJ.
Delete@David, I said it was able to be 'defended'. So, I have added the diagram from Figure 8 of The Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter to the main post. Note how they have drawn wave (4) a lot larger than wave (2) without necessarily identifying the sub-waves. See above. TJ.
DeleteThx for the clarification.
DeleteCoincidentally I just saw a chart of weekly corporate buybacks since 2009 and it's currently higher than it's been since 2009.
ReplyDeleteCorrect, and sentiment this weekend is 'off-the-hook' bullish. TJ.
DeleteWhen we open back up, I think this is another idea that has to be watched.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/HVM7kOO
Why are waves 1 and 3 (in circle) three leg zig-zag? Should not they be an impulse?
ReplyDeleteThese waves are simple non-overlapping impulses as shown on the chart, below. There are no overlaps to prove out anything else. And wave (3) of circle-three, ③, is > 1.618.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/poguPbTk/
You can 'also' consider that there was a Leading Diagonal for ① which went until late 2012. That's valid. There are overlaps for that. But then ②, where 2 is now, would even be shorter in price & time, and so that might not work as well. But, the second count, technically doesn't break any 'rules' either.
TJ
It is corrective pattern but it is fun to watch 99% of the EW guys trying to find impulse:)
DeleteCompletely missing second wave.... just for starter.
Ooor we have second wave for 3 months when the whole pattern will take 15+ years sound reasonable isn't it?
Krasi, Can you share a chart of this corrective pattern?
Delete@BBRider .. I think Krasi is just looking for something to say & someone to criticize. He adds no work of his own. TJ.
DeleteA few analysts have had that count for quite some time now with a 5K SPX target. Fascinating to see if that target is achieved in a recession.
ReplyDeleteOr during election-campaigning years (2024-2025?) 🤣TJ
DeleteES 2-month: here's a slightly longer-term log-channel view which looks nicely proportional. It also results in a divergent PPO from the 2000 peak. The PPO is often used when longer time frames are involved.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/v5Yq25f4/
TJ
Possible the last zz on the short term count.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/9QOH9oy
In the chart at the top, isn't the circle Wave 2 in 2012; shorter in time than the current 2? Is this allowed? TYIA
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ