Is the Dow Jones Industrial Average making an extended fifth wave as per the Dow (YM) futures 4-hr chart, below?
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| DJIA (YM) Futures - 4 Hr - Extended Fifth? |
Here is what Glen Neely writes in his book, Mastering Elliott Wave, about this prospect.
Page 5-12 (Formation of ..) Fifth Wave Extension
It is during a fifth wave extension that wave-3 will normally be related to wave-1 by 161.8%. The 5th wave most commonly will relate to the entire move from the beginning of wave-1 to the end of wave-3 by 161.8% added to the end of wave-3 or wave-4.
Page 6-2 (Correction Following...) Fifth Wave Extension
The correction following a 5th extension pattern must retrace at least 61.8% of the 5th wave but must not retrace all of the 5th wave IF the trend is to remain in effect. If the 5th wave does get completely retraced, it indicates the extension terminated a larger trend. Here are the different ways that can happen:
- The 5th extension pattern was part of a larger impulse which was also part of a fifth wave extension; or,
- The 5th extension pattern was the c-wave of a Flat or Zigzag pattern.
TJ,
ReplyDeleteI attempted to label the 4-5 of 3 and the final 5th wave of the SPX. I guess I'm assuming we're in the final 5th wave but who knows like the Dow it just keeps going. What do you think and how far off am I?
Thanks,
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=15&id=p13139696069&a=1548289681&listNum=17
I'm not a Stockcharts subscriber, so links don't work for me. A chart of the SPX opens, but it is not annotated with Elliott labels. TJ.
DeleteSorry about that. Here it is in TraderView. The wave that I'm labeling the final 5th wave has that shorter 1 and 3 wave and a long extended 5th wave but on a smaller scale than the Dow.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/dWn3SfbK-Done-Yet/
Thank you, this makes sense. The monthly, weekly, and daily BBs on spx are clustered together above 4600. A weak push up there for a final move makes sense. Monthly chart of spx looks extremely bullish but 4700 would be difficult to hold over according to previous tops where these clusters have appeared. Iwm closed above the 18 weekly convincingly Friday, so a final dash to trash (aka - return to normal) may occur for the next few weeks.
ReplyDeleteTJ, Given your response in the last post, Have you lowered your probability on gold being in a b wave as illustrated in your 08/16/2020 gold report?
ReplyDeleteYes, the EWO on that 3-mon chart has been to zero a second time for a fourth wave. And is now on a divergence. Tonight's further higher high can be counted as "into five-waves-up", so that's what is being counted at this point. Just be careful, because wave five might turn into a diagonal with overlaps. Eg tonight's high was 2,152 and so far price has backed down to 2,122. Whippy. TJ.
DeleteSimilarly on the one-month, there are two spots where the EWO crossed the zero line without overlap on the second time. It "looks" like into five-waves up, as below, but on a shorter time frame a diagonal is a possibility for wave ⑤.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/b54jB44v/
TJ
GC (Gold Futures) Daily - Getting a brutal reversal for the bulls. Watch for potential overlap or diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZDVVoNCz/
TJ
That is ugly.
DeleteTJ, Is this the idea on the gold diagonal?
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/yjcPbEx
That could be a larger diagonal diagonal. There could be a smaller one, too using the a,b,c shown above. It would be (i), but, yes, it 'could be' (iii), too.
DeleteTJ
Gold off the top looks like a wxy with an x triangle in the middle.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ.