A gappy and trappy triangle can still be valid in the SPY 30-min cash index. We have been following such for several days. The US Payroll Employment report is tomorrow.
The report might have a lot to say about the triangle. If the reaction is really bad, Friday could be an entire down day provided the triangle does not travel below the low of wave (c). If the reaction is initially bad but turns around higher the (e) wave might just be another spike lower.
Today the (d) wave got over the prior x wave of (c) but - from these quotes - the prior gap near the high was not yet closed.
What is making these triangles so treacherous is that the proportions are a little stilted. The retraces are both a bit greater than 78%, so it makes it a bit more difficult to know where the legs will stop. But these are likely machine made triangles - where the machines are exercising the control, and that is probably needed to keep them profitable and traders less so.
Regardless, the pattern is full of holes - like Swiss cheese - and often the gaps from triangles fill. It may take a few days but 'often' (not always) they fill.
Oh, and a word of caution, it looks like some data services are doing their 'futures contract roll over" tonight as this is written. That will throw a wrench into the mix.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
SPY 30-min: is over the prior high. One form of valid triangle has formed.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CBdYAEFP/
TJ
ES (Dec only) over its prior high, now, too. TJ.
DeleteSpx has not crossed July 22 high yet.
DeleteGappy and Trappy:)
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: there is a >62% retrace - which means if there is a third wave, it could be 162% (or more). I'd watch the low as a 'wave-counting-stop', and then watch the parallels.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/A0QVnTRd/
TJ
SPY 5-min: first up channel busted. SPY down to 78%. Getting more dicey. TJ.
DeleteES 5-min: in contrast to cash, ES 5-min futures had a much lower overnight low. And they have clearly broken one parallel. So, caution is warranted until we know more.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/suwih8iL/
TJ
ES 5-min: the high has been cleared, possible diagonal building? TJ
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ReplyDeleteThey roll when you want them to, provided you do not exceed the final date. Some brokers and charting services auto-roll them according to volume. For example, TradingView clearly rolled them today. Look at ES1! with its huge gap up today. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ