The cash market is not open yet, but, so far, the ES 2-Hr chart is still in range of a micro-④th wave. The Elliott Wave Oscillator is also showing typical fourth wave characteristics at this time. Note, it can go a bit further if it wants, but, if it goes too far, the immediate alternate would be a truncation at the high. As you might expect, the fourth wave incorporates a lot of time spent in exceptionally low volume trading over the holiday.
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| ES Futures - 2 Hr Close - Fourth Wave Possible |
Remember, the FED FOMC Minutes are scheduled to come out later today (14:00 ET), and the Payroll report on Friday.
Have an excellent start to the day and short week.
TraderJoe
Summer rally still underway after a pullback in late June. Based on the A-D line, interest is broadening out to other large cap (S&P500) stocks, but not yet to smaller companies. No sign of a peak yet. Rally could go into earnings reports in mid- to late-July.
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Truflation site ( https://truflation.com/ ) says current inflation rate is 2.21%. With the 3-month T-Bill rate at 5.43% (Y-Charts), real interest rates are 3.22%, very restrictive. A bearish intermediate term factor.
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ReplyDeleteAlmost all Federal Reserve officials at their June meeting indicated further policy tightening is likely, if at a slower pace than the rapid-fire rate increases that had characterized monetary policy since early 2022, according to minutes released Wednesday.
SPY 15-min: near the close. There are 'some elements' of a possible triangle here, but nothing yet rules out an impulse. There are now about 145 candles on this chart and the EWO and the RSI still look ok.
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TJ
P.S. It looks like there is contact with the lower channel line. TJ.
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