Looking at today's ES 4-Hr chart below provides 1) alternation, as we described before, and 2) a minimum flat wave which can now realistically be a fourth wave, iv, or more to the down side.
So here are some notes: If this is correct, then wave iv is already longer in time than wave ii at 36 bars vs 31 bars. In the ES futures, the prior low at Ⓐ was exceeded lower. This is what a flat wave typically does.
Price can easily head down to the channel, and or test it however. It hasn't yet. If the channel largely holds, then a fifth wave, v, might well make a new high possibly with a v = i or more.
On the daily chart, there is an outside reversal bar, lower, but the embedded status of the daily slow stochastic has not yet been lost using the regular calculation. Further, in terms of retracement levels, wave iv is 23.6% of wave iii but it is not yet 38.2% of wave iii which is more typical.
Of course, one needs to monitor the 4,500 level for any potential overlap with wave i. It will be difficult to draw any more conclusions until we see how this channel works out.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Having a tough time seeing the flat wave as a 3, 3, 5. The move to the high looks like five, with 4 over-lapping 1 so it had me thinking ED.
ReplyDeleteIt 'can be' and I am impressed with your observations. The count above is the 'conservative' one. The whole kettle of fish can spill as much as it wants at any time. Another way to say it is that a retrace of the outside day down ' might' fail. But patience is needed. TJ.
DeleteAppreciate the feed-back, My recent counts get blown up so often I second guess everything!
Deletelooks perfect - dead on!
ReplyDeleteWhat about NDX
ReplyDeleteI have said repeatedly, and shown repeatedly, there is nothing lower in the NQ until the channel is broken.
DeleteNQ Chart Link
The EWO looks to be headed back towards the zero line.
Try working on the count on your own.
TJ
Can you give us the long channel of the spy?
ReplyDeleteI have already done that once here (using the ES). You should 'take over' from this point.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2023/07/the-principle-of-equivalence-daily.html
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ