The cash SPY index went over the prior local high. The ES 4-hr futures came to well-within 90% of the prior high (more like 98%) and might go over the high on earnings reports, although it is not required to. Here is the ES 4-Hr chart again.
In any case, alternation has likely been obtained with the sharp second wave, and a trip to the lower parallel might result. If it does, be careful to watch for any overlap warnings.
This is also just a reminder that tomorrow's economic reports bring new home sales in the morning and the FOMC report & press conference in the afternoon. Thursday is Durable Goods, Initial Claims for Unemployment and the Advance GDP report. Then Friday brings the PCE Prices index. So, there will be a lot to chew on.
Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Looks correct, monthly bb near 4600 on cash, I can't imagine they leave it untouched at this point.
ReplyDeleteThanks Tj. Just for long term EW prespective of learning and investing not trading, I find Pug analysis quite good. For Tranding no ine cam beat your analysis. Tony must be envious of you in heaven.
ReplyDeleteI guess my 'long term' analysis of AAPL wasn't good enough. 🤨
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2023/07/the-magnificent-one.html
TJ
kaboom
DeleteYes tj.
DeleteSPY 5-min: possible to count five-waves down in cash. FED raised rates 0.25%.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/xhYzjMot/
TJ
Counted same in TQ, but an over-lapping mess in DJIA .
DeleteLooks like irr flat in SPY and ZZ in TQ upward...so far.
DeleteSPY 1-Hr: backing off just a bit, can still be in the 'b' wave over the high. No issues with degree labeling.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/d9XhWer7/
TJ
..now below the 2 PM low. Whippy. TJ.
DeleteSPY 5-min, below the 2 PM low .. futures working on it?
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/cgupzWnE/
TJ
Dow (YM) futures below 2 PM low. ES not yet. TJ.
DeleteI think a C up now for nasdaq is probable, should annihilate a lot of shorts before the bigger move down.
ReplyDeleteSPY 1-Hr: here are some measurements. I'm watching the gap.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zhT5RTGY/
TJ
(From CNBC)
ReplyDeleteThe Federal Reserve Board discusses proposed changes to capital rules for large banks. (Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yq6YfmLczU0)
TJ
SPY 1-Hr: there is gap fill. I'm placing a 'wave-counting-stop' at this morning's SPY high-of-day.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/EH8xnBu8/
TJ
This is also to verify that this down wave is longer in price than prior Ⓧ wave down ..in same direction .. so a turn of degree might occur. TJ.
DeleteHigh to Low - Low to High now equal in time on the daily. I ask again will this matter. I cant help but notice the big gap between June 8 and June 9 that shows up on a bunch of my charts.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uGfmDIuP/
VIX double bottom or continued descent? At some point this will matter again.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/e4HFNpXj/
On the VIX, Ira Epstein would say "when the VIX touches the lower daily Bollinger Band, the pros begin to write puts hoping to get back to the middle band."
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/hePsdwOI/
They did that today and more, and now the band is traveling sideways which is 'consolidation' that may precede a trending move. The difficult part (says Ira) is predicting the direction of the eventual breakout.
TJ
SPY 1-Hr: now below prior Ⓧ wave. Also wave three much longer than 1.618 x wave one. So, a successful fourth wave should result when it occurs.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/kVR1LLzz/
TJ
next SPY gap close at 452.18 .. keep an eye on it. TJ.
Deletenext SPY gap lower closed.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gm9yZXyE/
TJ
Another exhaustion gap AND outside reversal, lol. Will they be significant this time, one wonders. 😊
ReplyDeleteFor what it 'might' mean this time, see the next day's post which is now up. TJ.
DeleteDid we just complete the (C) wave of the circle X wave up, with a circle Y wave to go?
ReplyDeletecircle W completed at the low in September, and circle Y would end around SPX 3000 or 1.272 of circle W
DeleteThere are many ways to count at this point. That is just one of them. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ