A simple post today. It might be worthwhile checking in on the overnight tonight, as today we got a Doji candle on lower volume for the SPY. This is a candle of indecision. The SPY daily chart is below.
From the intraday time frames (5 - 15 min) in SPY, there are ways to start the counts for an impulse lower followed by an expanded flat, as the high was not exceeded today. Or there are elements of a sideways triangle, if there were only three waves down instead of the expanded flat. Since there was a higher high initially today, it might also be possible to count as a diagonal, either upward or downward. I'm not kidding. Just being honest. So, we need some waves with some length to better determine the count.
I will also add briefly with the higher closing and weekly high on the DJIA (YM) futures, it is now also possible to count the Dow in this manner, depending on whether the Dow's last diagonal holds or not.
Interested analysts should work out the details on an OHLC chart for the exercise in this A,B,C count from the low.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Unofficially (on phone) ES futures now have a gap lower and a lower low. Not the end of the world 🌍 but watch for overlaps, etc. TJ.
ReplyDeleteThe last few island reversal gaps have been negated. It will be interesting to see if they continue to swiftly fill them.
ReplyDeleteAaii investor sentiment survey was 51.4% yesterday. Some suggest that could signal over bought market.
ReplyDeleteSPY 15-min: last night's gap remains open. Gap from the 18th has closed. Now below a prior low which rules out contracting triangles and diagonals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/t4QD1c2i/
I'd try drawing the based parallel and see if anything comes of it.
TJ
Indeed! The DJIA algos are giving away free money! Lol!!
ReplyDeleteThis would be 4 in extended 1st wave count.
ReplyDeleteagreed .. well done; if it holds. TJ.
DeleteAgain, for the sake of discussion, Neely says the x1 shape 'generally' forms a wedge. This wedge shape has broken down a bit.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QiqY2DRJ/
So again, while still not impossible, it is another factor simply indicating lower probabilities. Not impossible. TJ.
Here I've inserted the relevant diagram from "Realistic Wave Configurations"
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UjJIeD1T/
TJ
ES 90-min: this chart is only to point out the overlap levels to be concerned with in the short run.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QwvB8pi5/
TJ
Allow me a dumb question, please. What are the implications of an overlap?
DeleteShould not be counting "4" in an impulse there, but could possibly count "4" in a diagonal there. TJ.
DeleteSPY 15-min: this is all I see so far. Either a simple a,b,c down - which 'could' start a diagonal if there are lower lows. Or a failure at the interior high which is over 78.6%, and a red "i", down.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/bMTJupug/
So far, there has been some success at slowing the decline down.
TJ
Dow (YM) futures 5-min: There was a pretty clear wedge wave (possible diagonal) on a divergence with the EWO. Might be worth looking to see if lower lows are made from here.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/RCNnnE2U/
TJ
Interesting no attempt to back-test wedge boundary...so far....
DeleteSPY 15-min: there is now a lower low. Dow getting lower lows too.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/90eoOcMI/
TJ
DAILY SPY is almost down to its 3 day ma of lows with an embedded slow stochastic. Buyers might show up.
ReplyDeleteES 90-min: one level of overlap has occurred.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gc8ujHD3/
TJ
ES 90-min: a second level of overlap has occurred. Two warnings triggered.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GC6LqWFr/
TJ
DOW cash 5-min; pretty unambiguous non-overlapping five waves down.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/eUPtQC0g/
TJ
The Dow is supposed to be the easiest to count (I keep reminding myself ..lol).
DeleteT.J. Have you ever seen such pronounced inter-market divergence? I don't recall ever seeing anything this extreme!
DeleteOnly at the 2000 top. The DJIA plunged while the S&P held on for 7 more months. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ