Today on the SPY 30-minute chart, we were working on a potential diagonal wave. So far, the measurements fit. IFF (and it's never certain) the measurements do, in fact, work out, then in what position exactly is the diagonal wave? The ES 8-hr chart below proposes that today's diagonal would be the micro ((C)) wave, of Subminute y wave, of blue minuet (ii) wave.
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| ES Futures - 8 Hr - Up Wave Count |
There are five reasons for this:
- The wave clearly fits in a near perfect channel. This is usually a sign of a corrective wave as we addressed in yesterday's post.
- The MACD might diverge on this wave. That remains to be proved.
- The ((C)) wave of w is just about 1.618 the length of the ((A)) wave of w.
- The x wave is the deepest wave of the lot. So, from a degree standpoint, it has the highest degree of the downward waves.
- The MACD signature does not look like the characteristic of an overall diagonal wave.
That's what we conclude and why. Have a very good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Why you gonna fill the upward gap before filling the four downward gaps? The two at the lower left are the largest of concern, but the other "running gaps" towards the upper right are also still technically unfilled.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/L2ihWTrn/
I'm not saying it's 'impossible' to fill your gap. I'm just wondering why you picked that one and not the ones more numerous in the other direction.
TJ
TJ thank you for your work
ReplyDeleteWelcome JS. TJ.
DeleteInterestingly, this 'first of the month' doesn't happen over a Friday-to-Monday period. It happens from Tues-to-Wed. Some plans make their investments on the 'first Monday' of the month which might be missed by this mid-week occurrence. Same with 'some' company pension payments, or bonus contributions. They have to define it that way for the cases where the first of the month falls on a weekend day. Again, I'm not saying that gap can't fill. I'm only saying that from the 'information provided', the odds are 50-50. No better, no worse. TJ.
ReplyDeleteTJ, I would like to offer my sincere thanks to you for this post!
ReplyDeleteEarlier in the day, I had added exactly the same wave counting labels to my own chart of the SPX index. 🤩
I'm not trying to copy your ideas, or take credit for them. 😇
I would just like to thank you, as a 20+ year student of classic Elliott Wave theory, for your analysis; because, it confirms (exactly) my own. 😄
Welcome & interesting to know. Let's see if works out. It's all still probabilities. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ