We found some interesting shenanigans during the afternoon session that led us to conclude a triangle might be forming on the 2-5 min charts. The triangle did form, and the result was a thrust out of the triangle on the short-term charts. Backing off to look at the ES hourly chart, with the prices we currently have, we note that a wedge shape is currently seen, and this is occurring with the new high on both an oscillator and a volume divergence. The new high on the daily chart did get the ES beyond the 50% retrace level as we suggested might happen. Yes, it could still go further.
We can only see what we can see. The wedge shape has a third wave at 0.618 x the first segment, so far. Because the trend lines are tentative, we don't fully know yet whether the wedge will hold up under the CPI report tomorrow. It certainly could. It does not have to.
Be patient. After days & days GOLD futures (GC) finally broke down under a fourth wave triangle, and then retraced 62%. See the comments in the prior post for details.
Watch them both carefully. Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
I have considered that too in S&P. Thanks to you, we are learning. And it seems reasonable being outside the daily BB.
ReplyDeleteGood deal. TJ.
DeleteBe aware some futures brokers are already adjusting day-trade margins in front of the CPI report tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteNo one has brought up Vix. Very low near bottom of range and below 50 day ma. https://www.mediafire.com/view/x6ftkkwrrzxq0dm/vix_1-11-2023.png/file
ReplyDeleteput call ratios also at lows
DeleteVIX has been a reliable risk on/risk off indicator this year; with the relevant zones being above 32 and below 20.
DeleteI think the fourth one is already drawn
ReplyDeleteBut now it looks like a triangle
DeleteUpdating TJ's wedge idea.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/mmLo43f
I am more perplexed on gold. Diagonal does not look right. Any running correction would be at 2.618 of a. Got me puzzled. 😕
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ