In tracking the hourly wedge upward, we said another new high could be made today. It was. That brings the ES to the 62% retrace level in twice the time (14 days up) of the down wave (7 days down). And there is a "spinning top" candle at the high. The daily ES chart is below.
Yes, there is a possibility of a further high, but not of much length. As Neely indicates, the further beyond 62% the up wave goes, the lower the odds of it remaining a second wave become.
Beyond that there is not too much to say except that like all candle patterns, the spinning top would require a significant closing lower candle to confirm it. The PPI report is currently scheduled for tomorrow morning, so take appropriate care.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
ES vs YM : interesting comparison on the hourly. Dow futures have a 'full impulse' down after the Goldman results.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/-1n1j
Meanwhile, the ES just coming down out of the clouds.
TJ
$INDU peaked Fri near the close. Down hard Tues morning, did not recover much in the pm, then down again right after the open today. Are the Generals leading the way?
DeleteDow futures have undercut the lows of Jan 11, 12.
DeleteTJ
SPY 1-Hr: now has downward overlap on wave ((1)), of the diagonal, up.
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TJ
SPY 2-min: it is possible to count a diagonal that converted to an impulse with very, very little retrace, as below.
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TJ
There is a lower SPY & ES low. Looks like if (3) is less than (1), then (5) must be less than (3).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yaToBSWB/
TJ
SPY 1-Hr: now also below prior wave ((4)) low of diagonal.
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TJ
Powell got COVID? Is that what they are going to use as the headline?
ReplyDeleteThanks TJ,
ReplyDeleteSpinning top working well.
With layoffs markets should touch the 22 lows.
yw ..TJ
DeleteThe stock market is quite perverse. With JPow, our chief inflation fighter, out of commission, the market should rally, not sell off. 😹 😹
ReplyDeleteA week closing below 100d and line in the sand 18d may confirm it.
DeleteSPY 15-min: I would put a wave-counting-stop at the local high. Crossing it may indicate a larger wave up . No certainties. I have a flat fourth wave possibility or alternatively a second wave.
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TJ
SPY 3-min: the conundrum is caused by this diagonal, by the higher wave after it and the channel. So, until proven otherwise, the most recent down wave can be a 'c' wave of a second wave.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/HtKFbSa5/
TJ
..yup .. ES prior high just exceeded. TJ
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
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