The cash stock market opened this morning, and after some retracing upwards made not one but two lower lows based on the SPY (and similarly the ES futures) 15-minute chart. In the category of try not to sweat the small stuff that leaves two options available. They are both shown below. Version 1 counts five-waves-down during the bulk of the day to wave micro ((5)), as below. This occurred after a flat correction for wave micro ((4)).
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| SPY Cash - 15 min - Version 1 Larger Impulse |
Version 1 means the upward correction might just be beginning. However, consideration of the first lower low of the day as wave micro ((5)) results in Version 2, as below.
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| SPY Cash - 15 Min - Version 2 Flat |
Version 2 considers that the correction began when the upward parallel was first broken. That means only a (C) wave up is left to go.
Each version has its strengths and weaknesses. Version 2 is slightly favored by degree labeling. The Fibonacci retrace levels are shown, and as you might have guessed 62% just happens to line up with the bottom of the gap area.
In either case, this seems to be more minutia than anything. The task is to try to count with the prevailing trend if it holds.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Can spy be counted as an ending diagonal here? I'm suspicious of a bounce starting tomorrow with triple witching upon us, thank you
ReplyDeleteProbably not. Ending diagonals 'usually' have greater than 62% retraces for waves 2 and 4. These are nowhere close. While a bounce can occur at any time, some 'leading diagonals' have less than 62% retraces, and some contracting structures that just 'scrape along the bottom's are 'b' waves. Any of these structures can lead to a big bounce.
DeleteTJ
thank you!
Deletenew low in on SPY
ReplyDeleteBonds bounce ?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/tvdgxiuef7fnxfi/Bondsbounce.PNG/file
Negated.
DeleteAlthough I have asked you not to, you continue to post these studies "out-of-context'. A simple review of the daily chart, Bollinger Bands and slow stochastic shows the "slow stochastic in fully-embedded mode" - what Ira calls "the most powerful signal in technical analysis".
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JFyqxYQz/
You might 'filter' your attempts to do this or risk numerous failed signals unless you do. There are many signals I have not published for this reason. I wanted you to see just how bad this analysis could be - and why.
TJ
We could still see a c wave up to form a flat; looking at the 4 and 8 hour charts.
ReplyDeleteYep. Possible. TJ.
DeleteES 60-min: Simplifying a bit, this is what I see so far.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7pQSRFx8/
TJ
IFF the overlap warning should be triggered before a lower low, then the three waves down count as a-b-c of i of a diagonal, not i-ii-iii; sorry can't be more specific than that with the current wave structure. But, until & unless that happens, it's an impulse count lower. TJ.
DeleteWaves down on futures may be done if 4 was that sidesways move. I can see a clear 5 waves under that.
ReplyDelete'possible', but by no means certain. See above notes at 10:07 & 10:24. TJ.
DeleteIn other words, the 'algos' might be trying for the lower daily band before the bounce. Be flexible & patient. TJ.
DeleteI thought the BB was hit on spy, but you're right - futures has a bit more to go still, BB currently at 3833ish
DeleteI ignore SPY almost entirely except to try to show intraday wave counts after the open. TJ.
Deletehi TJ - Feels like death by diagonals, in any case, can you review the daily ES chart chart below to ensure the bearings are straight on the big picture count? I also have a couple of follow up questions if I captured your analysis correctly. Apologies for faulty labeling convention.
ReplyDelete1) We're currently working on wave (i) of iii of a of 5?
2) as an alternative, can wave i and ii be counted as a and b of 5? If yes, that would make the current wave as 1 of c. It is still to be determined if this wave will impulse or diagonal (overlap at 3943 per your post earlier)
https://www.mediafire.com/view/nwqfm69ryctpq4x/Current_Count_ES.jpg/file
Thanks
..more precisely, death by diagonals and flats. Yes, those seem correct. TJ
DeleteSPX - 1mth new lows (avg) -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/omzymdq0gudc6y7/1mthlows.PNG/file
SPX (60m)(10x2) - update
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/yzsit
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTraderJoe