Impulsing Lower

The daily chart of the ES futures is below. The Elliott Wave count remains the same. Price is impulsing lower and today's bar can be counted as five-waves-down on a 5-minute chart.

ES Futures - Daily - Impulsing Lower

The length and steepness of the bar would tend to indicate the wave is part of a third wave, (iii), position, and is likely wave i of that wave. The going assumption is that the overnight high in the ES will not be exceeded higher for many days to come. (If the overnight high should be exceeded higher then it would invalidate the count). 

It is very, very likely that a number of technical analysts will also recognize same, and it would probably be wise not to get to cutesy with the wave. A third wave could break lower at any time and for no apparent reason. And, if the count is correct, this wave can travel much lower than some expect.

Note that, at present, wave blue i is shorter than wave (i) in price & time and therefore can qualify as a valid sub-wave.

What do I mean by not get too cutesy? Say for example a wave count is being worked on and it makes a substandard retrace and a lower low that tends to rule out your count? Well, there may be a flat wave or a triangle involved. So, try not to get too in the weeds about it all.

Further, the prior up wave (ii) did exceed the 61.8% retrace level in the futures. That means a 1.618 downward wave (iii) could easily occur.

We will note that price closed the day below both the 18-day SMA and the 100-day SMA so the daily bias is lower. They might act as resistance to an upward wave which might be the retrace wave. Further, wave counters need to be on watch for a cross of the 18-day under the 100-day. If the waves are this speedy in the downward direction, it could happen in days.

Have a good start to your evening.

TraderJoe