Yesterday, we noted the ES daily outside-day down. Today made a significant lower low on the news of the FOMC 3/4 point rate hike. This was after a five-wave up rally failed to take out the high of the prior outside-day-down. The daily chart is below.
According to the above program's calculation of the Daily Slow Stochastic, it is day three of embedding. According other programs it is day two. Either way, the high of today's bar is significant. Near the low, prices were pushing on the lower daily Bollinger Band which was at approximately 3813 - 3820 according to when observed during the day. Nearer the settle, prices were nearing 3,800.
Below ES 3,790 it will become very difficult to call the down wave a "b" wave in a larger flat because of degree-labeling considerations. Therefore, movement below there has a higher probability of being part of a third wave.
While a retrace of part of today's bar could occur at any time, nothing to the down side will surprise me. Regular readers of this blog saw in the intraday count today just how vicious the fifth wave of a downward diagonal could be - even on a smaller degree. See the prior day's comments for more on this topic.
Nothing in the Elliott Wave count is changed at this time.
Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe
thanks so much, ES weekly BB currently at 3673 if they want to grind it down to the double bottom area
ReplyDeleteWelcome. TJ.
DeleteI just wanted to point out that Ira mentioned yesterday in his video that the S&P could not embed today and he demonstrated that again in tonight's video. You may have missed some previous discussions between myself and some other followers that Ira has mentioned several times that he uses his own propriety settings for the stochastic readings which he only discloses to his paid subscribers. From my observations his stochastic readings are slower moving than the standard settings.
ReplyDeleteYes. I remain well aware of that discussion. But now I am talking about the 'regular' slow stochastic as computed by the program above & MotiveWave giving different answers, as well. Embedding is a little less important at this moment than is lengths of the downward waves. That's why I said, "either way". TJ.
DeleteAwhile back I wondered if the expectation of a deep re-trace also applied to expanding diagonals and you pointed out that EWP makes no distinction, and that few examples exist. Bearing in mind that ABC can be indistinguishable from 1,2,3, is there anything about the chart at higher degree that in your opinion makes one or the other more liikely? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteI was assuming no change to your primary B top and the potential expanding diagonal would therefore be intermediate 1 of primary C down but not sure if that was still correct.
ReplyDeleteA different reply would require different information, otherwise there is no basis for one. A 'deep' retrace is 'possible', but not 'required', if the diagonal forms properly. Also, depending on the length of wave 5 or (5), it 'could be' the diagonal 'could wind up being' entire move.
DeleteTJ
Wow! Never thought about that. That would mean each diagonal wave was at intermediate degree and the entire structure not of the leading variety. Food for thought.
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ReplyDeleteForgot to add that the coverage is covered by 6 times.
ReplyDeleteMETA - long term proposed count
ReplyDeletepbs.twimg.com/media/FdRPz44XEAEbr4u.jpg
I like meta here for a surprise rally to 200, no idea what would cause it except a tik tok ban. Snap as well looks promising in the red tech swamp.
DeleteES - the 'regular' slow stochastic in the program, above, and in MotiveWave are now both embedded. This may be different than what Ira's slow stochastic shows.
ReplyDeleteTJ
We have now taken out the June lows. interestingly enough, vol remains compartively muted. Reminds me of T.J.'s recent comment that this wave could well fall faster and farther than many expect...I agree!
ReplyDeleteI don't think it's quite accurate to say the June lows (in the ES) have now been taken out as of this time (real time data checked as well). Link below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6SSKVd33/
TJ
Was looking at YM...but it also fell shy by about 20 points when measured...seems just a matter of time...
Deletepowell speaking at 2pm today
ReplyDeleteVIX is finally popping above 30.
ReplyDeleteRight into the weekly Bollinger
DeleteComment seems to have disappeared after publishing. Here I go again:
ReplyDeleteTJ, backing up a little. Is it correct to say degree labelling considerations strongly suggest the current 2022 Jan-Sep drop is at least the same-degree if not a higher-degree wave than the 2018 Oct - 2020 Mar irregular correction?
(a) For degree labelling comparison, do we measure the net distance of the irregular (-749) or the length of the c-wave (-1145)?
(b) In either case, the 2022 drop to date is -1182 which exceeds either measurement in the 2018-2020 irregular (-749 or-1145). Admittedly it's only slightly longer than -1145.
(c) What bugs me is the time length - 2018-2020 took 79 weeks vs only 37 weeks (although still counting) for the current decline. Should we look for confirmation of degree in both price and time before we can say current 2022 decline is not a lower-degree wave?
See https://imgbox.com/M2FOZAaM
I have been suggesting the down wave is the same degree for months and months. It has been the very basis of my call. Here is just one example post. There are many.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2022/01/length-measurement.html
Remember, what I have cited as what I think is the way to view it. If the down wave is longer in price and time than Intermediate (C) down Feb-Mar 2020, then it must be either the same degree or the current downward wave is one degree 'larger'.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ