Friday, September 2, 2022

Simplest is the Best

We were expecting some upward movement today, and we got some as the initial reaction to the Payroll Employment Report to ES 4,020 until about noon. Maybe a bunch of traders decided to start their long holiday weekend early. Then around 12:15 ET we said if prices got below 3,983 a failed ending diagonal of the up move could be called, and we showed such in the comments for the prior post. Prices continued to fall off hard, hitting 3,925 by about 14:00 ET. Our original count was reviewed and we find this impulse to be the best and simplest answer to the decline. It is the wedge we originally posited.


In this count, wave v is less than wave iii so that there are no rules violations. Also, there are no degree violations. Wave ((2)) is less than ii, and wave ((4)) is less than wave iv. Further, wave ((1)) is less than the corresponding downward waves, i or iii, in price and time.

There was sort-of a "dead-stick-landing" meaning that wave v was squeezed until there was nothing left to the apex of the wedge. The count overall was a bit of a head-scratcher, but this looks right.

This morning ended three-waves-up, and this might start a Flat wave sequence (most likely), double-zigzag (if the low holds) or other more complex correction.

Have an excellent start to the weekend.

TraderJoe

18 comments:

  1. SPY 30-min: exceeded 90% of the prior low allowing a 'legal' flat wave. Can go lower if it wants. TJ.

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  2. Excellente, mon ami. Fun week. Thank you. Also thanks to other serious contributors.

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  3. Are we no longer close to completing the the minute ((a)) wave of minor wave 5 of the downward diagonal?

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    1. 'Often' (not always) the ((a)) wave of an expanding diagonal completes near the prior low to show its motive character. I am allowing for that at the moment. TJ

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    2. thanks. is that noted from personal observations? I don't see that guideline in the EWP book.

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  4. Hello Tj,
    Prior low means approximately 3643?

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  5. TJ, wouldn't the wave count (5:3:5:3:5) as shown be an impulse :5, given there are no overlaps? That is, unless it morphs into a 2ZZ?

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  6. The expanded flat is the favorite tool of the banksters to bamboozle traders. Looks like one underway... 😊

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  7. TLT (wkly) - Something to keep an eye on

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/itz0dptfb57i2l7/TLTrdh.PNG/file

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  8. SPX (25x2) - Current

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/0tiez32uzhymfd5/spx25x2.PNG/file

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    1. Note: With daily PnF charts, price can only be plotted in one direction. So, if price were to continue up enough to add to an existing "X" column, but then reverse enough to trigger a new column of "O"s, the reversal would not be seen that day.

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  9. Just some fundamentals to keep in mind. What the U.S. does, it does not do in isolation.

    China Slowdown

    TJ

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  10. Aside - Silver/Gold (dly) - Potential basing in process?

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/j0hbyvw0wv3suh6/Basing%25282%2529.PNG/file

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  11. SPY (30m) Reg div (hidden) - Let's see if this plays out

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/jwfmu6lfdtdxq82/spy30rdh.PNG/file

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  12. ES 2-Hr: some measurements on this time-frame for a 'potential' flat.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/o7oVOZCO/

    Alternate for a flat is a potential 'running triangle', but the structure is nowhere close yet.

    TJ

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  13. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

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