For the time being some things are undecided: a little thing like the election, for example. Price, as measured by the daily ES E-mini futures contract is still trading in a range, with the clear Elliott Wave count undecided.
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| ES Futures - Daily - In a Range |
In the prior post, we presented the applicable Elliott Wave counts that could be represented in this range. You are encouraged to review that post if you haven't already.
Daily, price is still above the 18-day SMA and so has a positive bias. And while price could easily trade up to upper daily Bollinger Band, the daily slow stochastic is already up in over-bought territory.
So far, we can only count three-waves-up from the October low. This could change, but it hadn't by the end of the day and the end of the week.
Have a good start to the weekend.
TraderJoe
There is a possibility that 3600 to 3200 is one big triangle and just completed d leg
ReplyDeleteTriangles 'usually' don't have 90% proportions, and so that idea fights the odds. Not impossible: just fights the odds.
DeleteA few observations on the DJI -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/38uBu.png
Forgot to note the nice 2 prd reg bullish div. at Oct low. This is as tight as it gets.
DeleteTJ can a X wave be an impulse or ending diagonal in a WXY?
ReplyDeleteI can't find any info about this in EW principle.
I'm curious because Oct down leg counts best as an impuls or diagonal imho
DeleteI stated in a couple of prior comments, that the DOW made a new low beyond the A wave, September low, at the October low. Therefore, it is 'possible' to count (X) as A, B, C to the October low. The wave has taken plenty of time, BUT it has not yet consumed much price. Therefore, it could travel lower or not, and be within the range of realistic counts.
DeleteTJ
Hi ET love your blog. I have put together what I think is the structure based on posts through the months as I have been following along silently ("Trillions" post plus more recent ones).
ReplyDeleteIf we were to suppose minor C is still to come yet on SPX, is this labeling correct barring price incompatibilty? (I am mostly unsure of the labeling from intermediate X to Y, is it 5 wave minor or 3 wave?)
https://i.imgur.com/ZCA1xqQ.png
Also, what are likely price targets for intermediate Y to finish out primary B? Once intermediate X is determined should I draw the best fitting channel, or is it fibonacci related?
Thank you for any help, I lack much experience with double corrective waves. I have the Prechter/Frost book, but, as we know, it is lacking in serious discernible applicability.
If (W) is in three waves, then (Y) would be in three waves.
DeleteTJ
I wondered about that. Any limit as to how strong wave c of Y can be? Wave c should sub-divide into 5 waves correct?
DeleteI think we are off here
ReplyDeleteUpdate to prior 4hr -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/38vH7.png
TJ, or anyone else following this blog on a regular basis. I would really appreciate if any of you could consider this count. I have showed it before but but didn't get any feedback. So if you could explain to me why this count is unlikely, or not plausible, I would really appreciate it. After the overnight price surge, and bullish sentiment that we'll likely get from the Pfizer vaccine, imho I think this count fits like a glove.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/XviUAG9c/
We have alternation btw the X1 and X2, Y is shorter than W, Z is shorter than W and Y as of now.
TJ what is the "common" price taget for a Z? (if there is one).
Thank you!
Potential count on Z. Maybe the overlap you showed last week TJ makes it possible to count an expanding diagonal during the election night?
DeleteWhich would be the ((a)) of Z.
https://invst.ly/srnat
Wow! I was fairly confident that 3600 would be tagged but talk about a rocket ship. I am exiting ALL positions today and moving to the sidelines. Never seen anything quite like this...!
ReplyDeleteGood morning all. Here's what I have, so far. If Friday was "three-waves-up" as stated in the post, then today is "five-waves-up", and a tag of the upper Daily Bollinger Band. Here is the hourly count.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/l1hXZsxy/
We note that (v) > (iii) > (i), but need some time to figure out best degree labels. They may well be minute degree but need to be checked. Further, it must be allowed that a further higher high could be made today/tomorrow in futures and/or cash.
TJ
TJ if you have time please look at my post
Deletethanks
I did, Erik. I am not responding at this time.
DeleteThe next task for today is to see whether this short term channel downward is broken upward, and to see if it is successfully back-tested. Then, to measure the retrace wave. The wave 'can' go over the top again. But, there is a possible earlier triangle in the futures that could also have ended the wave. Cash would count a little better if there was a higher high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8tmoGWYG/
TJ
..ES 5-min higher local high after downward back-test of channel.
Delete..very short term (ES 1-min) shows there can be considered five-waves-up off the bottom in an expanding diagonal.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/srr1t
TJ
Looking at something like this on NQ.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/HAf3fmF
Some updated observations -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/38wCn.png
Nas Comp has closed its opening gap.
DeleteThe short term TL on price has now been broken, as suggested by RSI 4hrs ago.
DeleteRSI has broken the upward TL from late Oct low now, suggesting that the comparable TL on price will be broken as well.
ES 5-min; now there is a deep 80% retrace on that diagonal. Watch it carefully.
ReplyDeleteES 5-min; the low of the diagonal was just taken out; so the expanding diagonal was an 'a' wave, there were five waves after it which were a 'c' wave; and now the low is exceeded lower.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/srsuf
TJ
Yep! A most timely exit...lol! I suspect failure to hold 3600 opens at least a revisit of 3500. Gaps galore below!
DeleteIn the recent up leg the daily SPX cash has gaped up in 5 of the last 6 sessions. Today's gap occurred with the stochastics already in over bought territory. This condition usually portends some profit taking at the very least. The situation is compounded and strengthened by the fact that today's price action has the potential to form a well respected candlestick reversal pattern known as a shooting star. If the cash closes below 3604 this signal will have formed and may signal an intermediate top or more.
ReplyDeletehttps://stephenbigalow.com/blog/shooting-star/
Plus, its a long ways from the Tline, which will see price again (one way or the other).
DeleteAHHH a follower! LOL Yes you are correct. I didn't want to get into those weeds for those who aren't familiar with that concept.
DeleteThe shooting star has weakened into a "Gravestone Doji" (a special case of the shooting star where there is no body). A down day tomorrow (Tuesday turn around) would provide solid confirmation of the shooting star top.
Delete