The hourly chart does contain a recognizable flat wave, upward, shown below, that we said was very possible after making the 90% bottom minuet (b) wave in both cash and futures, as shown below.
Today allowed the minute ((b)) wave of the Flat to reach upward to the 50% Fibonacci level. There is not yet confirmation that the upward wave is completed. The first step of confirmation would be trading below, and back-testing the current wave ii-to-iv trend line. The second step in confirmation would be trading below wave iv, and the first step in confirmation would be trading below wave (b).
If the up wave continues, the 0.618 and 0.786 retrace levels could be reasonable targets.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmaXhoWU8AAO7fm?format=jpg&name=large
ReplyDeleteHello David. Thanks for sharing your thoughts, but like many others it appears you don't care much about 'degree labeling' because (the major issue) your sub-wave orange wave (5) of wave black (3), which is supposed to be a smaller degree sub-wave, is larger than the larger degree black wave (1). That is highly unlikely.
DeleteAgain, if black wave (1) is a larger degree wave, then sub-waves of the next wave should be smaller than it. Also, (less significant point) is that except for color all of your degrees are the same.
I know people don't like to hear this, but if you force yourself to use the recognized degree labels and symbols, you will soon begin to see after a little practice how they do, indeed, make sense and why they are that way. To that end, here is an established reference.
https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:identifying_elliott_wave_patterns
Copy & paste the link.
TJ
I notice ES Nov9 high was very close to reaching 1.236 extension, something common for a B wave within an expanded flat. Assuming we are sticking with the double correction idea, within (X) wave the ((a)) ((b)) and ((c)) of A are shorter in time than how I have labeled ((a)) ((b)) and ((c)) of B, but it is something I wanted to bring up nonetheless. Does this have "a right look"? (Not implying certainty, just possibility here...)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MP2GARdr/
On ES, yes; if 3,600 - 3,680 holds as resistance, that is a viable option. From a degree labeling perspective, it does not seem to have any issues.
DeleteHowever, on YM (Dow) futures, the same count does not work as there is a lower low. So, up wave on the Dow has to be counted in three waves, and, so far, that works, too, because the spike wave is too long for a fifth wave in that contract.
TJ
Good points. Continuing on my alternate count possibilities, I will put my coffee down after this:
DeleteOn ES I am also trying the possibility of the (Y) wave already being complete:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/fiehGhFE/
Contrary to YM, I have tried labeling this latest run-up in ES as 5 waves under the assumption the (Y) is complete already:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/eXUOOZ8X/
This seems to be another possibility because ((iii)) is longer than ((v)) and ((i)), and the (a)(b)(c) corrections alternate between expanded flat and zigzag. One thing I am not sure about is (iv) of ((iii)) overlapping with the expanded flat (b) of ((ii)).
One of us has done something incorrectly. The red Fibonacci ruler, below, shows that the proposed third wave is shorter than the first wave. Then, the blue Fibonacci ruler shows the proposed fifth wave is longer than the proposed third wave.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MRc5nV0o/
Pls comment.
TJ
Your chart is YM, perhaps I wasn't being clear - I was only analyzing ES in depth (not YM) but I note how the indices are related as you do. So this is what I counted, though I do not normally use Fib trend tool to measure waves, I was measuring by absolute relativity (should I not be doing that?)
DeleteSo this is what I see on ES to clarify:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Fx55zgwi/
However, I do see what you do on YM for the three waves up count and do note the lower low in October. I am more aware then ever this year of the indices moving together but separately, yet YM ES NQ have curiously diverged in similarity moreso these last two weeks to my lesser trained eye.
Forgive me, my second fib ruler was off a smidge on that. Corrected:
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/NmtfCfjn/
We agree ES can be counted as 'five', but YM only 'three' or incomplete then?
DeleteYes we do agree. I will keep my mind open to all possibilities of wave count as you do without prematurely insisting a count is accurate before true validation. Thanks TJ have a good weekend and week ahead.
DeleteIs there an overlap between 1 and 4 in the abv. Thks
ReplyDeleteHard to say, If so, it is by two ticks. If not, it is because i ended at 16:00 and not at 16:30.
DeleteTJ
Yeah if take it as an overlap then we are in 3 of c. It gives room to go up more coming close to the high
DeleteThat may change the count
ReplyDeleteEnding Diagonals have overlap
ReplyDeleteVIX daily - something to look for Monday
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/38CMC.png
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete