In the first real chance the markets had to react to the election news, as the results were finally projected by the news organizations, stocks made a modest move higher early on Sunday night. Then, early on Monday morning, Pfizer announced some results on a possible vaccine trial with stated 90% effectiveness against Covid-19, with two doses, and a 7-day waiting period for it to reach that rate of effectiveness. Stocks initially soared on the news. Here are the current daily bars on the YM, ES, and NQ futures.
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| YM, ES, and NQ Futures - Daily - Tails |
The Dow and ES futures exceeded their prior all-time highs. The NQ futures did not. After the initial 15-minutes, or so, the market decided all this was too much good news, and began to sell off - putting in large candle tails, as above.
We had said on Friday that we could only count three waves up at that time, that the price bias was up, and price could hit the upper Daily Bollinger Band, but that the daily slow stochastic was already in over-bought territory.
So, with today's move, the market structure can be counted as five-waves-up, perhaps to A wave of Intermediate (Y) if the low is Intermediate (X). If that is the case, then the B wave should not take out the low. If the low is exceeded, perhaps the (X) wave is still in progress as a flat. We will be evaluating both cases over the next couple of days.
Some uncertainty exists in today's degree labels because there is a possibility of only minute wave ((i)) of Minor A, being recorded here. For me, the wave count is not locked in yet, and calm patience and flexibility are still needed in counting waves.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
In SPY (Think Or Swim Prices)
ReplyDeleteThe 23.6% extension of the Feb High to Mar Low Range, is 367.59
The 14.6% extension of the Feb High to Mar Low Range, is 356.72
On 11/9/2020 the SPY High is 366.77 and Close is 354.56
The turn within 1 point oaf the 23.6 Fibonacci extension and failure to close more than 14.6% beyond the Feb/Mar Range, indicates a false break-out from the Feb/Mar Trading Range.
For ESZ futures (TradeStation Prices)
The Feb Hi to March Lo Trading Range is (3388.5 Hi minus 2171.25 Low equals 1217.25)
The 23.6% Extension of the Feb High is 3675.77 {1/9/2020 Hi is 3668.00}
The 14.6% Extension of the Feb High is 3565.00 {1/9/2020 Close is 3544.00}
Until the market is able to sustain a move more than 14.6% outside the Feb/Mar Range, we're still in a Trading Range.
Also, the launch in USD/JPY this morning implies some Big Money stepping up to buy the big dip in treasuries.
So, SPY cash has a 1.618 wave downwards, and it needs to be determined if this is a fourth wave or not.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ss94q
TJ
4th wave triangle in the making on SPX?
ReplyDeletepossible
DeleteSPY 5-min..here's the possible triangle under discussion..
Deletehttps://invst.ly/ssb4m
TJ
initial triangle busted ..caution.
DeleteTJ
Isn't there also the possibility of a up now in a b wave triangle with c up to follow?
ReplyDeleteyup .. sure is..or possible double-combo; but still it's fighting 38% retrace.
DeleteSPY 5-min ;larger triangle or double-combo now viable; still caution.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ssbet
TJ
One manner of triangle may be completed. Or wave ((D)) could get larger. Still caution; these things can bust on occasion.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/ssbjh
TJ
..cash session ended with no decision on potential triangle.
Delete..potential triangle survives into the futures settlement, but now must be watched in the overnight.
Delete