Catfish or bottom feeders. After the five-wave diagonal we counted downward in near real time, the market tried to mount a rally to the prior 38% high we pointed out yesterday. For the time being at least, it double topped there at 07:00 EST.
Intraday, we counted out a diagonal, and looked for clues from it. It did break lower but it took a lot of time to do it.
Towards the settlement, in whippy behavior the futures market again made a dive for the lows resembling bottom-feeding fish. While the low did not break by settlement, it could, if it wants in the after-hours tonight or Sunday. All-in-all, most will just see it as a poor close, and perhaps people just leaving the market in advance of the holiday week.
Cash SPX is not showing much, if any at all, of repeated retesting of the bottoms. That is sure interesting - more invisible waves.
The larger count remains as it was yesterday, until this smaller pattern is resolved.
Have a good start to the weekend,
TraderJoe
Update on VIX daily - Observations
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If the bullish EW counts calling for SPX 4000.00 are correct, that is a foregone conclusion. That open gap has been to me a cautionary note for several months now for any bearish count.
DeleteSentiment is certainly at an extreme. Having for some time watched ordinarily bearish market signals routinely being negated, it seems clear to me that trying to gauge likely market direction by appeal to either technical orfundamental metrics is fraught with danger these days. Central bank intervention has imho greatly altered the way markets behave. I know some will demur. Dicussions with other traders, actively trading the market, and most revealing, watching very able analysts trying to make sense of the unfolding waves in my mind leaves no doubt.
ReplyDeleteThoughts on the 4hr (if interested) -
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A look this evening on the hourly - (10min delay)
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I have moticed that quite often when ES puts in a lower low, the cash session follows, even if there is what appears to be a bullish ES reversal prior to the next cash session. Futures ramp could be a bull-trap. VIX should confirm.
ReplyDeleteUpdate to last night's hourly -
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