Prices in yesterday's daytime session pipped up over the 18-day SMA and tried to close strong-ish with a close above that average as the ES daily chart shows below. That seemingly would turn the bias up, but the swingline indicator had no up-trend. But, after the boring earnings conference calls from Meta and Tesla started - which were long on promises and short on details - prices began wavering. This morning they are falling off fairly sharply and are again below the 18-day SMA.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Intraday Lower |
Prices could head back to the 100-SMA and/or the lower daily Bollinger Band, and a key question is whether or not a daily fractal will break lower or not. If so, then the next immediate target would be the up-gap fill from the daily close of 31 July. The daily slow stochastic is not yet in over-sold territory, and there is some chance it might start the process to embed lower, but we need to take that a step at a time. First, we need to watch the red (down) fractal to see if it is exceeded.
Again, no amount of down movement will surprise us. So far, the price action is consistent with my primary EW count and the potential truncation. Let's see if it holds. If you are a newer reader here, I will point you to my paraphrase of broker Ira Epstein's guidelines for trading here at this LINK that I have summarized from his publicly available videos back in 2015.
Have an excellent start to the day,
TraderJoe
ES 30-min: look at the people buying against 'the daily bias' with prices under the 18-day. The intraday bias is temporarily fighting the daily bias.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/KxA3bZ92/
TJ
...and now an outside bar (SPX500 CFD).
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TJ
Thanks tj. Good caution at yesterday high. Just for caution on other side too https://x.com/MacroCharts/status/2113224153096425518
ReplyDeleteI don't use, subscribe to, or have any access to x, twitter, etc. Please don't link here. Not interested. TJ.
DeleteSPX500 (CFD) 30-min: from the IWCS, and there's the lower low for 'five-down'.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PqpJedyF/
TJ
Seems like all Ai trade is over. Price is the always the king than news.
ReplyDeleteStop with the nonsense. 'Just' count waves. TJ.
DeleteThe anniversay of the '87 crash is in this window, and there's a huge storm coming to the UK over the weekend, just like in '87. Limit down days soon wouldn't surprise me at all.
ReplyDeleteSPX500 (CFD) 5-min: expanding diagonal off of the low. Watching to see if the low holds.
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TJ
..should the low 'not' hold, it might be a 'b' wave in a fifth wave diagonal. With the jury out, likely no man's land. TJ.
DeleteSPX500 (CFD) 30-min: after 2 closes below the lower band (odds 5 - 7%) there is a close inside the band resetting the number of consecutive closes.
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TJ
SPX500 (CFD) 5-min: expanding diagonal was exceeded higher before a lower low. Although there was the 'deep retrace'. Diagonal was leading.
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TJ
If the count is correct next wave down should be harsh 3 of 3 of something
ReplyDeleteSPX500 (CFD) 5-min: the non-retrace bar is now "covered" in a slightly longer wave. Can go further if it wants.
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TJ
Upward non-retrace bar now 'covered'; can go to the low or below if it wants.
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TJ
now at 90% of the low. 'B' wave of Flat or next impulse lower.
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TJ
Wow: "With the jury out, likely no man's land. TJ."
DeleteSPX500 (CFD) 30-min: from the IWCS, new local low of day. Possibly the "b" wave of an expanded flat or a wave of a diagonal, lower. It's all just '3''s at the moment.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zmEm5cNV/
TJ
s4 gone?
DeleteNq is 8.2% down and es 2.8% from top and
DeleteES Daily - the prior red (down) fractal low has broken lower in the overnight. Price is against the lower Bollinger Band in an over-sold condition.
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TJ
SPX500 (CFD) 30-min IWCS - five down allows definition of a new overlap warning.
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TJ
five non-overlapping waves down can be counted, as follows.
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..and there is now upward overlap. Now likely into a corrective sequence, up.
TJ
Thanks Tj. Is thr a time limit for exceeding wave 4 lower and also can retraces be more than 78% the way we counted truncation of wave 5?
ReplyDeletehttps://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzVy46rmUVJ2vlOTQzO_yYpIbE-3VkPsT4p_lqZax5enYUZWBPlEuZsTRwoCIYaqfDzNGd-21ov1613GKRFViS2hHyHzwdOkvzAwYK7df3HUPq_NBRwnLVW6oGdOFu2xFUb8jx3STjv3Z_gX9sBBMGxytLS3OK5z-45TEUAoWmZdn5FKOp6sK2yULvbpNr/s1557/ES1!_2026-10-18_14-04-51_1e1c4%20Conf%20Steps.png
1) Let's just say at some point you'd have to get a monthly reversal candle to get the institutions even considering a correction. Today is Fri 10/23, there are five more trading days in the month.
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2) The 78% is a 'minimum', so yes, including new highs.
TJ
Thanks. 1) Fed meeting may be the catalyst 2) Won't "including new highs" cancel the truncation and then it can or may be read as another count. This is the part which is always confusing.
Delete1) possible, not certain. There are 'odds'. 2) yes. It's not confusing at all. Sometimes truncations happen in upward 'b', or 'x' in a different count. TJ
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ