Tops of any degree can be darn difficult. In our local case, we don't know for sure that a truncation has occurred. But, if it did occur, it could have happened in one of two places. Those are both shown in the SPX500 (CFD) 4-hr chart below, market with the red asterisk and question mark.
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| SPX500 (CFD) - 4 Hr - Channel |
So, the best suggestion at this time is to draw the parallel, as shown and see if today's high is exceeded higher. If it is, then the A/B/C count lower may best pertain, especially if there should be upward overlap. Otherwise, it will be harder to claim a larger degree "five-down" until or unless there is a new low from here. Then, if there is, there could still be confusion with the nominal high made on 6 Oct. And that is why there is also a purple 1 & 2 shown in the count with purple 1 near the low.
If the market is to truly be weak, then it must show that character. If it is to be stronger, it could still wheeze upward into a larger diagonal. So far, the buying has persisted into yesterday. If the market can truly be perceived in a down trend at this time, that buying would seem a bit odd - unless the buyers are ignoring all the warnings (or those doing the buying have nothing to lose - like government officials, etc.)
So, caution, patience and flexibility are still highly recommended until the market speaks more clearly.
Have an excellent rest of the day and start to the weekend.
TraderJoe
Certainly strange to see NQ on the way down, whilst YM whizzes back up, and I suspect it's manipulation to rob options holders on Opex day. NQ looks like buyers are losing the battle, it's already down by nearly 6% from the peak. https://www.tradingview.com/x/yBjKFRGt/ Fun month ahead I think.
ReplyDeleteWithout a doubt!! Gangstas at work!! Lol!
DeleteBessent can make arrogant statements about being "The House's" but he will learn that Mr. Market brooks no rivals...
DeleteI am surprised that they are letting markets tank before Anthropic IPO and mid-terms.
ReplyDeleteLol! You are presuming, incorrectly in my view, that they were not attempting to trying to prevent the decline, more out of concern for the Midterms than any Anthropic ipo.
DeleteSPX500 (CFD) 4-hr: so for the moment we have the magenta "five-down". It can go further, there are also possible ways this could lead other counts, but more information than we have now is needed. At present, we need to look for a retrace that does not go over the high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/kmDvXLDX/
TJ
SPX500 (CFD) 30-min: and ES futures from IWCS. There are now seven closes below the lower band with typical odds of 0 - 1% of the next close outside of the lower band.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/sCkquoNa/
TJ
...and I am showing 18 SMA bear-cross 100-SMA on the intraday period for the next bar, with an embedded slow stochastic, currently.
DeleteTJ
...now also down to the S2 daily pivot. TJ.
DeleteThanks Tj.
DeleteCan you please elaborate whenver you can on truncation "But, if it did occur, it could have happened in one of two places."
both the (*)'s are over 78% retraces. Neely guideline. TJ.
DeleteSPX500 (CFD) 30-min from the IWCS. With the marginal close inside the band, the number of consecutive closes is reset.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/P7WhMtun/
TJ
Thx for recent updates TJ. Very helpful. Got a bit antsy overnight. Lol! Have a great weekend everyone!
DeleteWelcome. TJ.
DeleteOh I missed the bear cross chart. What else is needed to confirm truncated. Close below Sep 16 level?
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ