Think of it like a full-house hand in poker. You have three aces and a king & a queen. The question is what will be pulled from the deck.
We're just patient until the cards are dealt. The degrees are difficult to consider because the lengths are quite similar. Also, in the futures it is very hard to count that initial (a) wave up in the first diagram as it is very hard to count five-waves-up. And, if it has a truncation it may be the c wave in the second diagram making an overall (b) wave up in that diagram.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
SPY (cash) 15-min: this is what I see so far - a 1.618 extension and lots of gaps.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/IRZs8p9L/
Watch for a potential fourth wave at/near the upper channel boundary.
TJ
Possible NAZ count:
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/hquzNksU/
SPX500 (CFD) 30-min: overnight was the higher high (HH), and this morning is the lower low (LL). Nothing else 'has' to happen, only if cash wants to reflect the same.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qIUf21ov/
TJ
The absence of wave 3 channel breaks was notable in your chart. I think we get that today.
ReplyDelete...'possible' IF 'cash wants to reflect the same' from above. TJ.
DeleteSPX500 (CFD) Two-daily - here is the better break of daily trend line and better overlap.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/y81HwWun/
Now, this establishes limits on the down-side, this wave down 'should-not' become longer than the prior wave down (into mid-July) to continue a diagonal wave, otherwise we might have to look for a top in this index.
TJ
SPY Cash (15-min) there are only 86 candles on the 15-min cash chart. So as Tachy says, this could extend. If so, it is now a 2.618 wave at blue 3. If not it is over near magenta 5. One other issue is we are now slightly past 5 = 1.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/E9z14rWq/
TJ
SPX500 (CFD) 30-min: on both the futures and the CFD, there are fully 'six' consecutive closes below the lower band, odds about 0 -3% (not impossible, just very low odds) of the next close being outside the band.
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The intraday slow stochastic is still embedded, and there is nothing overtly bullish on the intraday until one is back above the intraday 18-per SMA.
TJ
...also on the daily down to the lower daily band with a daily slow stochastic that is only over-sold, not embedded. 'Possible' to go down to the 100-SMA on the daily. That has to be watched for, but not has lower odds without a retrace.
DeleteTJ
...now, a close inside the band resets the number of consecutive closes.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/VVGrJ78n/
TJ
SPX500 (CFD) 30-min, and futures, the intraday slow stochastic has broken the 21 level over 30 and is not currently embedded. This means price and the intraday 18-per SMA 'may' try to come together. Not guaranteed, but 'often' happens.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/I2Z64rY2/
TJ
1-2-i-ii just confirmed off the July low on the daily chart of USO
ReplyDeleteI see what you see; just keep in mind that price looks like it's still in a channel. Your count is definitely possible. But so is a 1.618 C wave overall (not there, yet).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mRkpZYID/
It's just a caution from The Principle of Equivalence. Below the prior high price could still be making a large Flat or something else.
TJ
What would be the wave 3 upside target on USO? 185?
DeleteThis would be a good time for the USG to try to knock down the oil price for a while and influence the upcoming midterm elections. Wave 'iv'? Maybe back to mid-channel at 92. Run the stops.
DeleteWhat? 185? I'm trying to show that a C/3 wave in CL can have a 1.618 target at the prior high gap fill around 120ish. As per the futures chart below.
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Beyond that, if it really is 1,2,i,ii, 3 and not A,B,i,ii, then there is a 2.618 target next at about 143-5.
TJ
Thanks TJ, for elaborating on CL. I was asking about USO - which is around 160 afterhours, so can extrapolate from there.
DeleteSPX500 (CFD) 1 hr: Here's a 2.618 in the morning. It drops the odds a bit for a new lower low. Not impossible, just lower odds. Kinda depends how many 'biggies' want to get out thinking a downturn has begun.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/XLsCW05c/
TJ
ES futures (daily) - one thing to begin to prepare for is the contract-roll difference. Currently September is at 7,667 while December is at 7,735, a difference of fully 68+ points at the moment. This might narrow a bit before roll, but it is still nuts.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Thanks Tj. Amazing deck pulled at 7580 and say now iv in then minimum target for v wave is 1 @7826 or 1.618 @7962? I have seen v truncating too as intetest rate decision looming too?
ReplyDeleteSPY Cash (30 min): one gap is closed, several remain open, one of which is shown.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/tSFt3lPm/
As far as I can tell, the overlap warning should now be moved to the lower location to see if a fourth wave maintains impulse integrity or not. Higher highs are possible. Price is still below the 18-day SMA. I think lower lows would only be more likely with a diagonal downward.
TJ
Mind the Gaps...!!!
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ