Five of the last six days have at least seen prices touch the 18-day SMA in the ES Dec futures, just the lead month, as below.
Today made a lower low in the SPY cash ETF. It did not in the ES Dec futures, and instead price just scampered back to the 18-day SMA to close near there. The market currently is quite sideways. The Elliott wave counts we posted yesterday, and have been following for months and years, allow it.
This is just a reminder that tomorrow (Wednesday) is the last trading day of the month & quarter, which often sees window-dressing and portfolio adjustment. And then Thursday is the first trading day of the new trading month/quarter which often sees the typical inflows from passive investing, Corporate bonuses, 401k rollovers, dividend reinvestment schemes, pension fund contributions, etc. So, step gingerly - if at all - through that and remember, some very large corporations have announced huge stock buy-backs, which the retail trader might be swamped in (Nvidia announces $150 billion buy back on Sep 28th, the largest in Corporate history according to Yahoo! Finance) should the buy-back become 'active'.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Thanks Tj. Gingerly :) The chart I see on previous post is showing count from March/April 2026 not from years. Am I missing the post?
ReplyDeleteAll of them posted Weeks and months ago, as in the list. I hope, by now, you can remember the long term weekly and monthly diagonal count, such as this one posted several times.
DeleteLong Term Chart Posted Several Times
TJ
Thanks. No major corrections in 2026 till now. Doubt ahead due to seasonality. Neely has already declared running correction over and new bull market but hard to belive that count. He thinks orthodox EW is a delusion.
DeleteWe had a ~9% correction in Feb/March. That's not nothing.
DeleteSPX500 (CFD) 4-hr: the PCE so far has allowed the futures & CFD triangles to survive as below. Because the prior leg down was shorter in price (marked 'shorter') and this wave up is longer in price (marked 'longer'), then an expanding diagonal lower is 'ruled out' at this time. An expanding diagonal would have a longer wave down, not a shorter wave down. So, the conclusion is 'still in a triangle' in this index.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qgi3lX2h/
Again, it 'could be' a wave iv of (a), up, in the impulse fashion. But it would be prudent to examine the open to get better confirmation on higher volume.
TJ
Interesting. Spy invalidated the triangle yesterday. I always thought once cash opens Spy is more credible on data to es.
Deletebut SPY did not overlap, yet; so it could be Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ down to iv. Stop making pronouncements and just 'count'. Don't worry about all the stuff in your mind about what is credible, and what is not; and what is important in the news and what is not as it relates to the market. Again, 'just count', period.TJ.
DeleteOr a much larger diagonal is forming as in this:
Deletehttps://schrts.co/AHjnaCqK
yes, Roy, possible! TJ
DeleteSPX500 (CFD) 5-min: five-waves up to a new local high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qH6fxihO/
'Just count'. IFF, as Neely claims according to mm, "original Elliott Wave is delusional", then why did 'five-up' just work? You can't have it both ways.
TJ
I don't even understand how Neely counts. https://www.neowave.com/tradingblog/blog.asp?bid=127
Deletehttps://www.neowave.com/glossary/index.asp
DeleteI entirely encourage you to watch this short video of Glenn Neely when "the boy genius" had begun to develop NeoWave. Pay attention at 1:30+ when he shows "where to begin an analysis".
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxGNJB5GKEk
While this "sounds great" it is really, really meaningless in the markets. The lowest low is the lowest low. You can't "undefine" things. Yes, there are truncations but not in every wave, not every time, as we showed for this morning's impulse.
There are many, many place where I agree with Neely. There are several, like this one, where I completely disagree because he is trying to make a "rule" where Elliott did not.
TJ
Interesting. With this logic we will never hit 2009 low ever. I think Pretcher follows Elliot "rules" strictly.
DeleteNo. Prechter has recently made all sorts of adjustments to try to fit his bad calls into the picture. "Stop" thinking. Just learn the 'rules' and 'count'. If you want to be a professional Elliott analyst you'd have much, much more work to do - like learning 'everything' that came before you. TJ.
Deletemm .. please do NOT post links to site that are paid or ask for donations. It is against the ground rules here. TJ.
Deletefyi - pls just remember that today is the last day of the month & quarter; so things 'could' or 'often do' get quite bumpy - especially after an impulse up has been made. Don't blame me. I'm not the portfolio manager adjusting their positions. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSPX500 (CFD) 5-min: try to remember the form of the impulse. Notice how waves 2 & 4 'alternate' with wave 2 as a Flat, and wave 4 as a zigzag. Wave 3 is longest in this case. Notice how I did 'not' call the impulse early, terminate it early or anything like that.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/AwHIo3N1/
And now the down waves are overlapping wave 3, at least, likely starting a correction.
TJ
..also, a key point, wave 4 was both longer in time than wave 2, AND it was longer in time than wave 3. This latter point is one that Neely argues for proportionality. I 'tend' to agree with him there, but I won't make it a 'rule'. You also 'could have had' a long-two and a short-four by the Principle of Alternation. TJ.
DeleteSPX500 (CFD) 30-min: looks like we're getting some of that 'window-dressing' sloppiness and possibly part of the Ⓔ wave of the triangle as a result.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nsAKmJMB/
TJ
SPX500 (CFD) and futures: 30-min: we were counting downward but the slight lower low now makes wave-counting even more difficult. More later. TJ.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ