Range Expansion

As the last trading day of the month, quarter and year a number of milestones were hit on the daily chart of the ES (Mar 26 only) futures, as below. The key points are summarized below the chart.

ES (Mar) Futures - Daily - Close Lower

The key points observable are these:

1. A trend lower was established. Whether it continues or not will be a critical observation. There are lower highs and lower lows on the swing-line indicator.
2. A close below the 18-day SMA occurred as of the cash close, with a larger bar than yesterday. So the daily bias has - at least temporarily - switched to lower.
3. A close of the daily gap from 19 Dec occurred today,
4. The embedded slow stochastic reading was lost today.
5. A critical level for daily overlap was established.

Friday (Jan 2) is the only day the slow stochastic can re-embed. It would take quite a significant rally for that to occur. Not impossible, just lower odds.

In Elliott Wave terms, the up wave can still be counted as a minute ⓑ wave or minute ⓧ wave. The objective is still to see if we get a deeper Minor B wave.

If all goes well, I hope to have more on the weekend. Have a good start to the evening and the New Year!

TraderJoe