The wave counts are really getting strained. One almost has to look at the structures with one eye closed and the other one squinting to see what the machines are doing to the market - grinding for hours and swinging leisurely at other times to make waves that waste a lot of time and make little progress. For our part, it looks like we called the internal structure properly in the prior post.
We had no idea that such a lengthy diagonal would form in the wave structure. But, it apparently has. I say apparently for three reasons, 1) we don't know upward movement is over yet, though the odds are getting better and better, 2) we do not have diagonal confirmation yet, in the form the of the start of the diagonal being exceeded lower in less time, and 3) one could put the label iii at the high close on Friday 28 Dec, and label all but today's breakout as a triangle. I have no qualms with doing that. It would be in line with The Principle of Equivalence. However, because wave iii was not on the exterior of the parallel it would not have been as predictive as this original labeling.
Further, we said the diagonal could still extend until or unless 5,812 were exceeded lower. It hasn't been yet. That statement is still operative, and it explains the timing of some of the retracement waves. There was not much interesting in the wave structure until about 3 pm today when a very, very modest decline began. However, we do now have the SPY cash and the ES futures making new highs on the same day - today. That was not the case yesterday.
Should the market start downward in earnest (which it is not obliged to do, given the internal machinery) the next questions for a wave count are 1) whether either of the cash gaps fills, and/or 2) whether a low under the start of wave i is made or not.
Have an excellent rest of the evening,
TraderJoe
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