Local Count

Yesterday we said much of the current wave count was indeterminate and we needed to wait for some clarity. Today's movements offered a bit of a look into the local count, particularly if we use the ES 4hr chart, and the zigzag indicator - which we have often used to mimic the method Glenn Neely uses to examine wave points.

So, in the above chart, the terminals of the waves are accurate (right up until the last one which may still be under development).  But at least it shows part or all of the up movement in the after-hours session to the new higher high.

So, we have the five-waves-up ending with the expanding diagonal which is by The Principle of Equivalence can be an a/i wave. Then, we have a flat 3-3-5 sequence with only the marginal new highs. The substructure of the :3 on the FED meeting rise is not observable here, but I could not count it as a 'five' of any type on the OHLC chart down to the 15-minute level. So, now the question is, "is that b/ii done and over, or will it make a larger Flat wave?". I don't know the answer to that question, as that is where more uncertainty comes in. I'm showing you what I do know about the current count. I'm not guessing what comes next. Yes, it could be that even a larger b wave is in the offing. This is where topping structures get nasty.

Again, in the bigger picture, the expanding triangle is still on the table. IF so, this would be part of the ⓓ wave, up. Or we could still be making a much more complex flat with this as some kind of ⓧ wave. That remains to be seen.

So, let's take it step-by-step and observe how things develop. Clearly, this remains a time for caution, calm and flexibility. Throw in a good mixture of developing holiday spirit and patience as well.

For now, have an excellent rest of the evening,

TraderJoe