Tuesday, December 30, 2025

Immaculate Compression

With every possible Christmas pun intended (hopefully L'Enfant has a birthday sense of humor), today swung back & forth, wildly at times but going nowhere at other times. This gives the appearance on the SPY cash 30-minute chart of a quasi-triangle.

SPY Cash - 30 min - Quasi Triangle or w-x-y

Not even the FOMC minutes could get things headed in the direction of a breakout. Towards the close, it looks like it wanted to break down but that needs to be watched yet. It could be that people are just backing away in front of the New Year's Eve holiday.

Of course, compression is one of the surest ways for the algos to create losses, so it may just be that Optimal Prime just needed his fill from our piggybanks. Oh, wait, we don't have those anymore - pennies not losses - because there aren't any more pennies being printed (er, or something). Yet, they still have the sense to bill us in hundredths. In case you're wondering, I actually didn't have any losses today as I saw the sideways bands early, pointed it out, and went into 'range mode' rather than 'trend' mode. But the monotony was still annoying.

Along with the great saving-grace of penny elimination, I sure hope the New Year doesn't see too many more needless inventions like the electrified roadway in FL for charging EV's, when no commercial EV's have induction coils for charging yet. Or another type of vehicle other than high-speed intercity trains that actually connect people to places they want to be. Or, like another needless social media platform - like Tic-Tock that keeps time during the market day and metronomes endlessly until the close. Or yet another outlet for someone to spout their half-baked political views.

One can only hope, as the mind turns to mush on days like today - perhaps indicating a stiff pre-NYE cocktail is needed! Indeed. Lol!

Have fun,

TraderJoe

27 comments:

  1. Lol! My sentiments precisely! I watched with great amusement from the sidelines as both put and call premiums got ground to powder on a high speed train to nowhere! Surely a change's a'coming! 😊

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  2. The new Porsche Cayenne Electric is available with induction charging, FYI:
    https://spectrum.ieee.org/porsche-wireless-ev-charging

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  3. SPY (Cash) 1-hr: has the lower low and a 38.2% retrace.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/Pui7qKel/

    TJ

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  4. Reminder: today is the last day of the quarter, which often sees both month-end and quarter-end window dressing. Then, the new year's first trading day will often see the passive inflows we have discussed so often (401k's, pension plans, company bonuses, personal bonuses, dividend reinvestment schemes, etc). Sometimes the Smart Money will 'front-run' these expectations later in day, often depending on their income tax/capital gains situations, etc.

    TJ

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  5. SPY 2-min: regardless of whether a new low is made, or not, the down wave is already long enough to suggest at least a diagonal for this wave. (i.e. Failure 'IS' possible).

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/pK6efF7I/

    Watch the down length compared to the previous segment down.
    TJ

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  6. ES Daily - now in contact with 18-day SMA. TJ.

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  7. SPY 2-min: diagonal survives currently. Watch the low.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/8DofrS5z/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ..now 5-smaller degree waves up off the low. Watch the low.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/Vb0AmnZw/

      TJ

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    2. Volume Point-of-control (on a very short term) shifts lower.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/YA87GJls/

      TJ

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    3. Switched to 3-min: pierced the prior high in cash and futures. Try to see if prior low is not exceeded, and if down wave 'takes less time'.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/Bcfjivkm/

      Good luck all.
      TJ

      Delete
  8. Man, I hope Minor B didn't end on November 21, and now were making some dink ending diagonal for Minor C

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    Replies
    1. ..a valid possibility, but that would be an extremely short Minor B in price. Possible but lower odds. TJ.

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  9. SPY 3-min: now just past equality. a/b/c is ok; i,ii,iii is ok. 1,2,i,ii is OK. Contracting diagonal is not ok.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/oc3Lfsxk/

    TJ

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  10. Overlap warning triggered. a,b,c OK, expanding diagonal OK to certain lengths.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/YinrLGOn/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. Expanding diagonal has met the 'minimum' downside length, but not beyond 6,919 futures. TJ.

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    2. Expanding diagonal invalidated. Upward is only a-b-c, or a-b-c of a contracting diagonal now. TJ

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    3. a-b-c of contracting diagonal invalidated. Now is only a,b,c up, as some kind of retrace wave. TJ.

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  11. Another possibility to end a fourth wave lower would be this larger diagonal on the SPY/ES (CFD) 30-min: which requires the overnight waves.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/llZObndD/

    But, if it doesn't hold a larger down wave is possible.
    TJ

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  12. Replies
    1. Chart is behind.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/m5JtuXWt/

      TJ

      Delete
    2. Updated chart showing gap fill.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/rhY2TTLO/

      TJ

      Delete
  13. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

    ReplyDelete