In the prior post (LINK here), I said that it was very difficult on the long-term chart to keep degree labels making sense and to get reasonable Fibonacci ratios unless a triangle was considered for the Cycle IVth wave, after the 2012 top. I also said for that reason I was still counting "by parallels" until that was no longer possible. But where are (is) that parallel, and what is the count? The chart below shows the likely parallel at present.
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| GOLD (GC) Futures - Weekly - Degree Analysis |
The parallel is based on the fact that the largest and longest correction should be the larger degree correction by degree labeling. So, it is given the label of Primary ②. And it is much less than a 38% correction, so that means that the prior wave was highly likely an extended first wave, x①. So far, that is holding true as Primary ③ is shorter than Primary ①. Further, the Elliott Wave Oscillator is near a high, so this agrees with a large third wave at this position. As another sign of this count, there are no significant overlaps at this point, and the most likely overlap warning level is shown. So, IF a Primary ④th wave can hold the parallel, then the wave has a good chance of finishing like an impulse. Remember that a ④th wave can be one of several types of triangles if it wishes. This may make trading very tricky & whippy. Keep in mind the ④ and ⑤ shown on the chart are placeholders only - just to keep track of the count, not to indicate the levels price should reach or when it should reach them.
And what about wave Intermediate (5) of Primary ③, how is that finishing? The daily chart shows that wave below.
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| GOLD (GC) Futures - Daily - Local Count |
So far, from the Intermediate (4)th wave on the daily chart, with its EWO signature at or below the zero line, there appears to be an expanded diagonal fifth wave which has already made a new high. So, if there is to be a Primary ④th wave, then it might come back down to the level of the prior fourth wave, which would be the Intermediate (4)th in this case. So far, this wave is on a daily divergence with the EWO, which is often the case for fifth waves. So, the indications are that the technicals are working at this point, and there is still some wiggle room at the high.
Again, while this is not trading or investment advice, be prepared for highly whippy and volatile price movement, or very tough compression or whippy action if a triangle forms.
This is the second post since Thursday. Have an excellent rest of the day and weekend.
TraderJoe
TJ, How have you worked through the previous issues on the 3 month?
ReplyDeleteThose were the higher EWO here and the 4th wave triangle never came close to the lower channel.
Thanks for all the work and I am very excited to hear about the book moving along!
I started with the annual chart, non-log, to get as much history as possible. And I used non-log-scale to see if it implied anything. It didn't, except the no-overlap as below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QBn9d7rd/
Then, red IV didn't alternate with black II. But, as the triangle, black IV does alternate with black II. So, since that follows an additional guideline, it seems to make the most sense. Then, it still looks like the 'blow-off-top' that is often expected in commodities. It ain't perfect. It's the best cards I can see on the table.
TJ
..also, without the triangle, the current waves would have way more than a 4.272 Fibonacci extension. And it's almost impossible to get that natively and keep degree labeling intact. Further, as we had discussed earlier that Ⓑ wave of the triangle was again more than a 2.618 extension, which, I said at the time, was more likely inside a triangle or diagonal because of the extreme lengths. TJ.
DeleteThx for the response and I do remember that 2.618 comment at the time.
DeleteThank yoi Tj
ReplyDeleteWelcome. TJ.
DeleteIf that count is correct, it would be a quite dramatic exception to typical commodity 5th wave characteristic of being the strongest, not the weakest, wave!
ReplyDeleteDon't be fooled by the log chart in the prior post. Look at the link in the 8:59 pm comment above and there is all of the 'blow-off' fifth you'd like to see. TJ.
DeleteI was thinking about the 3rd wave being shorter than wave 1, requiring wave 5 to be the shortest.
DeleteYes. The 5 < 3 would provide a potential measurement and an invalidation of a count. Under The Principle of Equivalence, that is its primary value. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: the half-hourly futures currently look to have this type of construction as a 3-3-5 expanded flat.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QnDE53Ba/
Could be a fourth wave of minute ((c)), up.
TJ
The B wave expanding triangle looks better to me all the time.
ReplyDelete...still a real viable count. TJ.
DeleteSPY (Cash) 5-min: shorter wave up; longer wave down. Can be 1) part of a diagonal up - too early to tell - or 2) part of a larger triangle sub-wave four wave, down, as still in the larger fourth wave down.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/pCW2Ah03/
TJ
ES/SPY(CFD) 30-min: just been spinning inside the Bollinger Band all night. News in a few minutes.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/FjWSyb2j/
TJ
Chicago PMI @ 43.8 vs 39.5 est. TJ.
Delete..break of first down (red) fractal, back, and swing around to immediately break first up (green) fractal back. TJ.
Delete..now, three up (green) fractals back exceeded higher. Whippy. TJ.
DeleteQuite a turn ...watch the larger up bars to the left.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/cvRUzWF7/
TJ
Reminder: FOMC minutes scheduled for 14:00 ET. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: and back to the 18-per intraday SMA. TJ.
ReplyDelete..second down (red) fractal back exceeded lower. Whippy. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ.