US equity prices, as measured by ES futures had an inside day today. This temporarily (at least) turns the swingline indicator up. With prices not making a new daily low today, the 18-day SMA rose up enough to cause prices to contact it as shown in the chart, below.
Meanwhile, a new up (green) fractal formed at the prior high, and the regular calculation of the daily slow stochastic lost its embedded status. The only day it can get it back is the next day (tomorrow) without going through the whole rebuilding process again. Because of the prior day's lower low and potential lower high, IF a follow-through down bar occurs tomorrow and there is a close below the 18-day SMA, it could start a trend lower. It hasn't happened yet, but we'll be on the lookout for it.
For the moment things are dead-neutral. From a wave count perspective, the downward count remains the expanded flat, while the upward count remains a potential expanded triangle. Again, keep an eye on the local technicals until the situation clears.
Have an excellent rest of the evening,
TraderJoe
I just noticed a beautiful expanding diag in Amd. Good study
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/szRaCk5P/
Pretty interesting! TJ.
DeleteVix is winding up in a consolidation after Friday's move. The fact that it didn't shrink back right away as it almost always does is a concern.
ReplyDeleteI noticed an extreme low/put call ratio for the IWM etf. On 12/19/25, over 2.3 million calls vs 153,000 puts. I'd take a bet against the bulls.
ReplyDeleteLikely driven by high rate cuts optimism, which disproportionately benefits small caps.
DeleteTOPT update:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5FNL40tt/
Under the 18 ma and the vix is winding up for a bigger move
ReplyDeleteES Daily - The morning's lower low turned the swing-line indicator down, but the close at or about the 18-day SMA neutralizes it. Five-waves-down can be counted in the ES futures on the hourly chart, and on SPY.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gnX9VIJz/
To activate the expanded flat, downward, today's low has to be exceeded lower. To activate the expanding triangle, upward, the prior up (green) fractal must be exceeded higher. In between these two points is kind-of a no-man's land from the standpoint of a wave count.
TJ
ES (Mar) 30-min - from the intraday wave-counting-screen. First down (red) fractal back exceeded lower. Still, not much to write home about without full daily lower lows or a higher high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/XC6cnmTP/
Up wave counts as an expanding diagonal in the futures by "one tick". No kidding.
TJ
ES 5-min: lower low tends to make it five-down. Doesn't mean it can't go over the high, but likely means to place a wave-counting-stop above the high. TJ.
DeleteHere is the 5-down on the ES/SPY (CFD) 2-min chart.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/FylpMJnF/
TJ
ES new daily low, as wave 5 extends. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSpy 2 hr Looks more like 3 of 3 now.
ReplyDeleteWith the futures up some 50+ points this morning, do you perhaps see the use of The Principle of Equivalence in terms of psychological preparation for a pre-market like this? It is partly why I have developed it.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/xPGkE9sz/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ.