Here are the current measurements of the ES continuous contract, even including the level of the current contract roll over. Y = W to within 5 points.
The blue line at 5,600 at the top of the chart would be (3) = 0.786 x (1) where we think the proportions of the contracting diagonal would start to lose their 'right look'. Price is not close, yet. So far, so good.
Friday's daily candle on the roll-over contract was a "spinning top" candle. As with all potential candle formations, a substantial closing lower, in this case, candle would be needed as confirmation.
Sentiment levels have gotten even more bullish (contrary indicator) as the AAII Sentiment level crosses the 51% level.
Have an excellent start to the weekend,
TraderJoe
Thanks Tj.
ReplyDeleteSPY 2-hr: SPY has opened a gap to close a gap, but now also leaves a gap above. Level of the second gap down (in black) touched.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ITSSnrOF/
TJ
ES 1-hr: the ES hourly has a very nice-counting diagonal, which is good for a little way yet as per the chart below. But be cautious they can swing around pretty quickly.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/13xiwp
TJ
There was a time I would perk up at things like shooting stars, gravestone dogis, and island reversal pattern, especially when impulsive looking declines ensued. Is it just me, or so many of those time-worn patterns now generally bullish?! Lol!
ReplyDeleteI personally think you are 'feeling' the 'bias' that price is over the 18-day SMA - just as Ira Epstein indicates: the price bias is positive over the "line in the sand" and negative below the "line in the sand".
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/J1JOjsmB/
Beyond that one can observe that - semi-statistically - prices have not touched the lower daily Bollinger Band all year. Wouldn't that seem odd for an algorithm that is designed to keep price trading within it 95% of the time? I say "semi" statistically because we know market prices do not follow the "normal" distribution, but rather have longer than expected tails (Mandelbrot, Taleb).
TJ
Odd indeed, and not only that. Extreme hidden sigma in implied vol as well. I noticed they trotted out Ray Dalio and Jamie Dimon to trumpet the "All Clear" narrative. Ray surprised me. 😊
DeleteI also think a lot are expecting that rates are returning to the old trend. I think shtf when /ZN and /ZB make new lows. They both have real nice impulses down off the highs and now in a retrace that could take some time. That would let the longer counts play out on the ES.
DeleteES 30-min: here is a reminder of the intraday wave-counting-screen. There just isn't anything out of the ordinary here, yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4AX3GEjh/
TJ
SPY 5-min: has what it needs for a contracting diagonal, upward.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/2vWkH1JX/
TJ
SPY closed the opening gap. TJ.
DeleteSPY 5-min: after the diagonal, correction or triangle. Probably depends on CPI.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rOK8q68x/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ.