The FED, that's who. Early in the overnight, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) said there could be a recession. Today in the FOMC meeting minutes released of the prior meeting, a recession was also said to become more likely. Surprise? No. The inverted yield curve has been saying it for months. As far as the ES futures go, they first popped to a very marginal new high on the more benign CPI report. Then, prices reversed creating yet another outside key reversal day down as of the cash close. The daily chart is below.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Outside Key Reversal Day |
On the intraday chart, even though the triangle did not work out, we were able to identify one five-up count for the c wave scenario within an hour of the cash open.
Today also adds the 06 April low as a closer-in down (red) fractal. The daily bias however remains up. The daily slow stochastic is flirting with the 80 level after being embedded but - as of this time - it is still embedded. And the usual considerations for an outside day down apply: "IF the high of the outside day down is exceeded higher within two subsequent sessions, then it would constitute a trap for the bears."
Interestingly, if you draw a trend line up from the lows it likely will intersect with the 18-day SMA. We'll see what kind of follow-through develops, if any. Remember, the PPI report is tomorrow, but I suspect attention will begin to turn from the inflation reports more to company earnings reports in the softer conditions.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Keeping an eye on this.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/iCNNjPC
That alternate is getting riskier because it has already invalidated in the NQ. Not impossible - just lower odds.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/AeY16m6u/
TJ
Tj
ReplyDeleteWhy is that buy the 'Dips' last few months
Always seem to win, if we have the patience to hold on?
I don't know what you are referring to. Holding on to what? Price is 'over' the 18-day SMA so the daily bias is "up" as I have referred to in this post and in other posts. If you have any questions about the trading strategy Ira Epstein recommends, a link to my paraphrase of it is again, below.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2015/11/paraphrase-of-ira-epsteins-rules-for.html
TJ
The triangle you suggested a couple of days ago maybe playing out in spy
DeleteI think the ED is legit, just hate them cause there so open ended.
ReplyDeleteES 1-Hr: watching if there is any reaction off of 62.%. Below 4137 become more problematic. We are at 4,150 now.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/aaeWqQKm/
TJ
Any possibility we may be forming this in the SPY ?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/doe2ENJQ/
yes, possible. SPY is over the high again, TJ.
Delete..but only to SPY 414; otherwise, the third leg is too long and it becomes BBR's expanding diagonal. TJ.
Deletecycle guys are saying we're running out of time. 4200 is also where the 100 weekly and Weekly BB come into play. I think it may be too obvious to get there.
ReplyDeleteWhat an awful count; an x5 count? Possibly an 'A' wave in the expanding diagonal?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/XShNofCe/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ