Yesterday, we counted the up waves to minuet (b) as a,b,c "so far". The reason we said, "so far", is that "b" waves in general can be quite tricky, and there was no good evidence the upward wave had ended. Today, the up move continued for a while, then "Oops!", the White House tweet indicated that stimulus talks had been called off. The additional sub-divisions upward appeared to be another three-wave sequence making the larger wave w-x-y, upward, inside of the Fibonacci 150% external retracement on the (a) wave down - a measurement which is quite common for (b) waves. See chart below.
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| ES Futures - 30 Minute - Minuet (b) |
With no particular sense of urgency about the health of the populace or the economy, in once again trying to showboat for the election, the President created the downward price spike, above, which broke through the lower boundary of the Elliott parallel trend channel. Of course, we expected that, at some point, a (c) wave lower could occur, and this appears to be the start of it. A retrace of the high should hold for the downward count.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Can you venture a count from today's high? Do you think it is now more likely within the 2 or the 3 wave?
ReplyDeletePrice is now on daily pivot R1 of 3,394 with two consecutive closes over the ES 30-min intraday Bollinger Band.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ET do you think it's likely that this will morph into a tripple zz?
ReplyDeleteDJI is already past 61.8, so I think a tripple zz would give better proportion than a C, and it's pretty good alternation btw the Xs.
https://invst.ly/sdwif
I've learned a long time ago it doesn't matter what I 'think'. Try to let the market do the talking, as per the intraday chart link below.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/sdwv0
There is some resistance here from the R1 resistance level. But, as long a price is above the red 18-period SMA the "wind is at the back of the long side of the market". For those who went long in the overnight, the 'risk' is back to the prior fractal, down, as shown.
Similarly, for those looking to short the intraday, the "wind is not at their back" until price is under the 18 period SMA.
A fractal break higher over the 18-period, indicates upside. A fractal break lower under the 18-period indicates downside is 'possible' but still more risky because price is over the 18-day SMA.
This is not trading or investment advice - just a summary of a paraphrase of Ira Epstein's Guidelines applied to an intraday time frame.
TJ
Thanks TJ
DeleteHere's a newer channel to keep an eye on.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/sdwj7
TJ
Basis 4hr ES, yesterday's low gave us a lower RSI low, higher price low (pos HD). The ensuing candle (bullish harami) "set" the RSI low. Target is 3426.50. Should price fail to reach this, suggestive of change of trend (back down). Fwiw. :o)
ReplyDeleteThanks for your interesting contributions, which imho complement the value of the TJ's expertise on this blog. I have questions to the moving average oscillator which you showed on you 4Hr ES chart on Oct 5. What period you are using? Is it the moving average of the RSI14? I couldn't find this indicator on TOS or on Interactive Brokers platform? Will highly appreciate your kind inputs hereto.
DeleteNobody even talks about that we are discussing stimulus near stock all time highs.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
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