There is no doubt this is a grinding, sometimes stalling, sometimes impulsing wave up. It feels like a third wave. It is, to me, in the sense that C waves are in the third wave position. The daily Elliott Wave Oscillator is still green and printing locally higher bars. Overall the EWO still has a daily divergence.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Zigzag |
That being the situation a case can still be made for being in the minute iii wave of the Minor C wave, as above. There is not a significant daily reversal (yet), the slow stochastic is still embedded, and price remains over the 18-day SMA. However, price today closed over the upper daily Bollinger Band, and that should perk one's antennas up at the least. I can't imagine what the put-call ratio is yet today, but I'll have a look at it tonight.
Daily price is in the channel above (overall in part of a wedge). But, there are no downward overlaps yet. Price is nearing the level of C = 0.618 x A, one of the common measurements for a zigzag wave.
We showed how both the NDX and ES can have a near completed count in this area on intraday charts in the comments. Those completions, or near completions, can be for minute wave iii of Minor C. There are ways they can squeak out new highs within limits, so the overnight needs to monitored a bit to look for overlaps.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Some observations on v of A on daily.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/jfdNxF5
Comments welcome.
An add'l observation. [IF] the initial pullback on A/O is 2nd wave, then draw the 0-2 TL.
DeleteSome thought on RSP (equal weighted SPX).
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/fxb62Ug
Comments welcome.
Hi GreyWaver:
DeleteYour wave i = 6.21
If your wave v equals wave i then 108.88 + 6.21 = 115.09 (in the 114.9 - 117.32 gap made on 2/24)
If your wave v equals wave i times 1.618 then 108.88 + 10.05 = 118.93
Would 'they' leave the Feb High in place or throw another .06 on the board?
One more idea GreyWaver:
DeleteComparing the relative price overlap today over 6/8 High, to the 6/26 Low under the 4/29 High:
The 6/26 Low (98.06) overlapped the 4/29 High (99.15) by 1.09 points.
1.09 + 113.16 (6/8 High) = 114.25
1.09 times 1.1456 = 1.25 and 1.25 + 113.16 = 114.41
You can use other Fibonacci multiples for higher potential targets.
There is now downward overlap, and a perfectly acceptable expanding diagonal (or triple zigzag); either suggests the minute iv wave is likely.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/s0ajp
TJ
I have us reaching the 2.618.
ReplyDeleteNow beyond the 3.618.
DeleteCash is quite close to the 1.618; it is possible this is only three-waves until we see a fourth and a fifth. Otherwise a-b-c which explains why the diagonal broke down so quickly after the short wave up (it was likely only a b wave). But, we'll see; time will tell.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0gT1Tstq/
TJ
..just fyi; the futures did cross the 4-hr EMA-34, lower; a good sign for a fourth wave (or something worse, lower).
Delete..now into the fifth wave lower on cash.
Delete..chart showing fifth wave lower.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Dm1GVF4b/
TJ
Looking at the A/O on 1min (120 bars for move down), could we just have completed a 3rd rather than 5th?
DeleteThanks
..just fyi; now up and over wave ((2)) to ((4)) trend line; likely an extended fifth wave.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/b09y7KGO/
TJ
..just fyi; down wave reached 23.6% on wave B-to-iii.
ReplyDeleteET, that's 5 down for the largest drop since 3000. Are you still thinking this is a wave 4?
ReplyDeleteDaily AAPL slow stoch. may be losing its embedded reading. The default macd is also rolling over. http://schrts.co/bTiGrmQU
ReplyDeleteDoes the fed allow a close at LOD?
ReplyDeleteRSI helping out this morning.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/wTJJHEd
bounced at the daily 18 MA so far
ReplyDelete