Regardless of the overall daily wave count - which is still on track from yesterday - today's internal wave count suggests there may be a battle about to begin for control of the 18-day SMA.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Nearing 'Line in the Sand' |
Today, prices went down and hit the lower daily Bollinger Band, where the daily slow stochastic indicated they were over-sold, then they rebounded strongly toward the 18-day SMA, the line in the sand.
The internal count on the day is as per the chart in this LINK. If a fifth wave higher is made tomorrow, then it would likely come into contact with the 18-day SMA at some point. Then, the question becomes whether another up wave will follow it for a deeper correction or not. The issue is whether we have made an impulse down, and a flat, up (probably in the NQ), or just a stunted - but legal - diagonal down in the ES, and will make three-waves up for a second wave.
The good news is there is at least a little volatility to work with compared to the narrow-range everyday up bars of the last few months. Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Any chance the small rally at end of day to new high was actually a 5th of larger 3rd, and now we are retracing in 4th?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Nope
DeleteSomething worth monitoring (imho):
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/5AoB7AV
Tj so time wise is there a violation in futures for 4th being too long. Thks
ReplyDelete..there is js ..but it relates mostly to prior waves not to wave two, as they are of the same degree.
DeleteCracked the old high by one click this morning. Wave ((4)) appears to be a flat-x-zigzag, and it broke the 0 - ((2)) trend line.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/s330p
TJ
...last waves can be quite tricky, especially when you can't get 120 - 160 candles on a five-minute chart. So, I'd at least draw the parallel, and try to form a wave channel.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/s33h8
If a wave (4) begins downward look for overlap, or look for a potential diagonal - depending on how long they want to keep the ship afloat.
TJ
..well, that was quick; downward overlap already; potential diagonal with the high as (1), or done.
DeleteTJ
..from what I can see at this time, an upward diagonal has busted, so good chance a top is in. Sure is a sluggish down wave though.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/s35j1
TJ
..a real slag of a wave .. the further lower low has made another diagonal possible.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/s36t6
Be certain that (5) does not become longer in length than (3) otherwise suspect impulsing lower.
TJ
..a 'contracting' diagonal lower has invalidated; look for impulse or expanding diagonal, or just a large corrective B wave.
Delete..now down to 62%; wave label at this morning's high uncertain. Could be the end of the larger hourly flat, or could be a "a" wave with a "b" wave down, and yet a "c" wave up, from the larger hourly contracting diagonal count lower.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/s371k
TJ
..likely only taking out the low or the high will provide more counting information.
DeleteGold d wave in?. Could be a smaller triangle in a b wave as well.
ReplyDeleteI have "five-up" in GOLD 4-Hr, probably the 'a' wave of (d), and now the 'b' wave down of (d).
DeleteTJ
The thing that bothers me i can easily count the last leg of low of 2 days ago as 3 waves in futures opening a possibility of expanded b then c up in 5 waves
ReplyDeleteI would have no problem seeing this as an impulse lower if the fourth wave ((4)) can hold in and now overlap ((1)). Note iii of ((3)) on the RSI.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/s37q0
TJ
IF the second wave actually failed, it would be a pretty weak wave sequence.
DeleteUntil today I felt the prospects of an expanded flat upward correction was the most likely scenario. Today this has changed. Instead of a flat I now like a "B wave triangle" for the upward correction. This afternoon's drop would be the "d wave" of the triangle. Works on ES, YM and NQ.
ReplyDeleteCan't tell at all what time frame you are working on. Can you please be more specific so others can follow, too?
DeleteThe triangle starts at Friday morning low
Delete@JoeM ..see response @17:27 EDT, below.
DeleteSure ET, one moment.
ReplyDeleteFor NQ and ES (using 30 minute candles) the initial drop or A wave concluded at 10.30am on September 4 at 11142 and 3347.75 (data from Trading View). For YM A wave concluded one bar later (11.00am) at 27643. The "B wave" triangle commenced from these levels.v
ReplyDeleteSo, if I understand it correctly, the triangle you are proposing is the one in this diagram.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Rvw15bX2/
So, the caution would be the reading on the Elliott Wave Oscillator. "Usually", most-often, not-always, in a triangle the EWO reading on the ((C)) wave is lower than on the ((A)) wave. In this example, the ((C)) wave EWO is higher, so it doesn't seem like it fits. It could, but it does fight the odds a little bit.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete