Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Gap Fill - Almost

U.S. Debt Clock: $23.02 Trillion; prev $23.00
ES Daily Candle: Lower High, Lower Low, Higher Close: Yin-Yang Candle
Market Posture: Neutral-to-negative and Probing
Daily Swing Line: Higher (Higher High, Higher Low)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)

Today made a lower low day than yesterday, then struggled all day to try regain the high, but, as of the settlement still hadn't done it. All-in-all, prices have retraced about 62% from low to high. From what I can see, time has run out on a further minuet (b) wave upward, but downward acceleration is needed as better confirmation of the minuet (c) wave, downward, being in progress. Refer to yesterday's posted chart as needed. Might be good to watch the overnight futures tonight.

Today's downward move filled the last S&P500 cash gap, upward. It came close, but did not quite "fill" the futures gap - only tying the close of the close-to-open hourly gap.

Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe

17 comments:

  1. Unless Im misinterpreting, I believe Neely states that a 5th wave failure (truncation) should result in the entire 5 wave impulse move being retraced. It would seem to suggest that the 5 waves up from Oct 31st should be retraced fully before a new high is made. Am I reading this correctly?
    Thanks

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    1. It wasnt aimed specifically at this situation, but in general. I just used this situation as we had an assumed truncation. But forget this example, and view the question as it would apply to any truncated impulse move. With this in mind, what say ye?
      Thanks

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  2. Over 3,079 (as per previous posts) a fifth wave is in progress. Minuet (b) is invalidated, and the fifth wave must be included in a larger structure. More later.

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  3. Here is the upward wave, so far. There is no alternation yet between waves. So, it needs to be monitored to see if this is a higher b wave or part of the third wave yet.

    https://invst.ly/ohh6t

    TJ

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  4. "b" of assumed triangle in Gold has been exceeded. 75% of longest leg from "e" is just below around 1470+. Measured move around 1455.

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  5. Still no alternation; stay open minded for a diagonal. Most recent high would be ((3)).

    https://invst.ly/ohnqa

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ..wave ((4)) in a diagonal would need to hold 3,089 or else, the c wave of a flat for alternation.

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    2. ..cash has invalidated a potential diagonal and looks better as a higher 'b' wave for alternation.

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    3. last chance 4th wave, as w-x-y or possible triangle from the high

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  6. Gap providing support. Looks like one more upside ramp before we're done. The turn down should impulsively fill multiple open gaps...

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  7. We could be in 2 of a large CED that started on 10/31 on ES.

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  8. I count 9 waves, no overlaps, up from the Oct 3 low to today's high. Today's pullback overlaps. For me this is a completed impulse. Not sure if wave 1 or 5 in the sequence is the extended wave.

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  9. A new post has been started for the next day.

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